Bitcoin Rising… Ark Invest: “Not Yet Irrational Overheating” [Decenter Market Situation]

Bitcoin (BTC) is on the rise. Amid the recovery of global investment sentiment with news of resumed US-China trade negotiations, analysis suggests that BTC has additional room for growth.

According to the global cryptocurrency market site CoinMarketCap, as of 8 AM on this day, BTC was down 0.34% from the previous day at $109,773.73. It briefly broke through $110,000 around 4:40 AM before slightly dropping. The altcoin leader Ethereum (ETH) was up 5.39% at $2,804.97, XRP was down 0.63% at $2.304, and Solana (SOL) was up 3.15% at $164.71.



The domestic market is unanimously rising. At the same time, BTC on Bithumb was up 0.60% from the previous day, recording 150,184,000 won. ETH rose 2.18% to 3,838,000 won, XRP increased 0.83% to 3,153 won, and SOL was up 4.44% to 220,580 won.

This rise came as the US and China began high-level tariff negotiations in London. This is the second such negotiation following the one in Geneva, Switzerland in May. US President Donald Trump said he was receiving "good reports" from the US negotiation team but remained cautious, stating that "China is not easy". As market sentiment stabilized, the Nasdaq index, which focuses on tech stocks, rose 0.31% that day.

Global investment firm ARK Invest maintains an optimistic outlook on BTC prices. In its May monthly Bitcoin report on the 9th (local time), the firm diagnosed that "Bitcoin has not yet reached irrational exuberance". The data suggests that BTC could rise further. The report highlighted △total unrealized profit levels and △ETF fund flows as upward signals.

The total unrealized profit level is measured by the difference between market price and on-chain average purchase price. According to the report citing Glassnode data, the current total Bitcoin unrealized profit is 1 standard deviation (sigma) higher than the cycle average. ARK explained that "in past cycles, the profit and loss indicator was interpreted as irrational exuberance when it reached 3 standard deviations above the average".

The report also focused on ETF fund flows. According to the report, Bitcoin ETF net inflows increased by over 120% in May. In contrast, gold ETF flows dropped from $9.2 billion to $1.5 billion.

ARK Invest is a global investment firm led by Cathie Wood, known as the "Money Tree Sister". The firm continues to maintain a positive stance on BTC. Earlier this year, they predicted that BTC could reach $2.4 million per coin by 2030. They currently manage the Bitcoin spot ETF ARKB.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index from cryptocurrency data analysis firm Alternative.me was up 9 points from the previous day to 71 points, indicating a state of "greed". This index means that the closer it is to 0, the more investment sentiment is suppressed, and the closer to 100, the more market overheating is indicated.

Reporter Do Ye-ri