Expectations of a September rate cut surge: Can the market return to a bull market? | Trader Observation

Here's the English translation: At the July monetary policy meeting, Powell's hawkish remarks dampened rate cut expectations - he affirmed the current labor market's robust performance and again emphasized potential inflationary pressures from tariffs, warning about the risk of one-time price shocks evolving into persistent inflation. Despite continuous political pressure from Trump, Powell showed no signs of retreat, adhering to the "data-driven" principle and emphasizing the Federal Reserve's independence. This statement quickly cooled the market's previously high rate cut expectations. However, the non-farm employment data released on Friday dramatically shifted market sentiment: July added only 73,000 jobs, a 9-month low, and critically, May and June employment data were collectively revised down by 258,000, leaving only 33,000, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Recession expectations suddenly intensified, causing significant pullbacks in US stocks and the crypto market. Consequently, September rate cut expectations rapidly increased - the CME FedWatch tool showed the current probability of a September rate cut has surged to 92.1%, compared to just 63.1% a week ago. Simultaneously, the White House launched a "hunt" against the Federal Reserve: on the day of data release, Trump fired the Labor Statistics Bureau director appointed by the Biden administration and accepted the resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Quarles, signaling the White House's determination at the September monetary policy meeting. Next, BlockBeats has compiled traders' perspectives on the upcoming market situation to provide some directional references for this week's trading. [The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating into clear, fluent English.]

@0xSunNFT

On July 29, the "Altcoin Microstrategy" collectively plummeted, sparking discussions among traders about its sustainability. Currently, most traders remain optimistic about the "ETH Microstrategy" but are more cautious about other "Altcoin Microstrategies".

Trader @0xSunNFT pointed out that ETH has been the core engine of this round of price increase since late June, driven by two main forces: first, institutions imitating MicroStrategy are massively buying ETH through crypto-stock financing; second, the warming up of stablecoin narrative, with ETH being the core infrastructure and settlement layer.

Referencing the previous process of MicroStrategy driving BTC prices upward, most Altcoins ultimately failed to outperform Bitcoin. For the ETH Microstrategy, the funds invested by crypto-stocks and institutions are unlikely to spillover to other Altcoins. Data shows that according to CMC statistics, among the Top 200 tokens in the past 30 days, only 20 tokens have risen more than ETH, and these are mostly specific cases driven by favorable events like Bonk, Zora, CFX, and ENA.

In Altcoin selection, the strategy still follows the previous short logic: prioritizing targets with high market cap, non-leading positions, weak trends, and low presence, and adopting a diversified short approach with strict stop-loss to prevent sudden surges in single targets.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, if the market continues its bull market pattern, ETH will likely lead the way; if it turns bearish, Altcoins may struggle, while ETH will at least have institutional buying providing some bottom support.

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