The market, project, currency, and other information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
BTC Price Trend Daily Line
This week, BTC opened at $109,217.98, closed at $119,130.81, rising 9.08%, with a high of $119,500, a low of $105,119.70, and an amplitude of 11.04%, with moderate volume expansion.
In last week's report, we mentioned that "some positive changes are happening, and the activity of internal funds has begun to increase after being dormant for over a month. This enhancement may resonate with external funds and drive BTC to launch the fourth wave of this bull market." This week, the resonance between internal funds and strong buying power from the BTC Spot ETF external fund channel was realized, pushing BTC to a new historical high this week.
Meanwhile, uncertainties have suddenly increased from the "peer tariff war" chaos and unexpected employment market information that may affect interest rate cuts, which is worth close attention.
Policies, Macroeconomic, and Economic Data
Tariff wars and US employment data were the main factors affecting the market this week.
On July 10, Trump announced a 35% uniform tariff on all Canadian imports starting August 1. On July 12, Trump demanded market opening, threatening 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU if no agreement is reached by August 1. Previously, the US had already sent letters to Japan and South Korea setting tariff rates at 25%.
Additionally, on July 12, Trump sent a unified letter to 23 other countries, specifying tax rates of 20-50%, but countries can negotiate reductions before August 1.
Currently, the tariff rates for major trading partners exceed market expectations. Meanwhile, the $3.4 trillion "Big Beautiful Bill" tax reform and expenditure bill is entering deep review in the Senate, with the US deficit potentially reaching 9% in fiscal year 2026. The "double-edged combination" of fiscal expansion and tariff inflation is causing the market to re-evaluate stagflation risks. Influenced by policy uncertainty and stable data, the US dollar index rose about 0.8% on a weekly basis. Long-term concerns have not yet significantly impacted the market but are accumulating.
Labor Department data showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 dropped to 227,000, a seven-week low, far better than the market's estimated 235,000. The strong data caused traders to again postpone bets on the first September rate cut, with FedWatch data showing July rate cut probability dropped to 5.2% and September rate cut probability dropped to 60.4%.
On July 2, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized at the European Central Bank's Sintra Forum that a July rate cut is possible but not officially supported, with uncertainties still existing about the second-round inflation impact of tariffs. Internal divisions are emerging at the Fed, with many officials "defecting" to support rate cuts, and this week the US Federal Housing Finance Agency director suddenly revealed that "Powell might resign".
Various signs indicate that the conflict between Trump and Powell regarding "rate cuts" is further deepening. However, the key point is whether tariffs will cause obvious inflation, which would directly impact September's rate cut. US stocks and BTC have already priced in a September rate cut. If inflation shows clear upward signals, the market will be under pressure and will likely see downward pricing to a certain extent, but this will not change the market trend.
Crypto Market
Macromarket uncertainties have kept US stocks hovering near historical highs, with the three major valuations slightly declining. However, benefiting from the double resonance of significant internal and external fund inflows, BTC rose 9.08% this week, creating a new historical high.
Technically, BTC's biggest achievement this week is breaking through the "Trump bottom" established since last November, which is the 90,000-110,000 USD oscillation range. BTC has oscillated in this range for 8 months, the third-largest consolidation platform in this bull market cycle, with over 30% of BTC experiencing on-chain movement in this range.
This range priced the major breakthrough of BTC and crypto assets being established as US strategic reserve assets during Trump's administration, which is extremely significant. It also means the large-scale institutional adoption triggered by US public companies incorporating BTC into their treasury. We believe this range will be a very important new starting point.
Breaking through this range means BTC has officially launched the fourth wave of this bull market. In the June monthly report, we mentioned that like the previous three waves, this rise will likely complete quickly in a short time. This short time might be two to three months and is worth close attention.
BTC's breakthrough of the 8-month "Trump bottom" has also activated the long intentions of other crypto assets, including ETH, bringing a market-wide rally.
Fund Inflows and Outflows
Amid the resurgence of the tariff war and global macro challenges, robust internal and external fund inflows have pushed BTC to significantly outperform the Nasdaq this week, breaking through the "Trump bottom".
This week, stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF channels totaled $5.886 billion, including $217.7 million in stablecoin channels and $2.78 billion in BTC Spot ETF channels. Additionally, the ETH Spot ETF channel saw an inflow of $929 million, creating a single-week record for this ETF type since its establishment.
Stablecoin and BTC & ETH Spot ETF Fund Flow Statistics (Weekly)
Moreover, enterprise-level acquisitions are accelerating.
Q3 market consensus is growing stronger, and the robust fund inflows are difficult to change the short-term trend, with the market regaining its bull market brilliance.
Selling Pressure and Sales
Since July, as BTC approached its historical high again, long-term holders began slight reductions. This week, with BTC breaking its historical high, long-term holder reduction officially started, but the reduction amount was only slightly over 10,000 coins.
Sales volume from long and short-term holders increased compared to last week, but the main selling pressure comes from short-term traders. Currently, short-term traders have about 18% profit, and selling power is gradually increasing but still limited. With strong buying power, exchanges remain in an overall outflow state.
We have repeatedly mentioned that long-term holder reduction signals the arrival of a new liquidity cycle. With September rate cut expectations unchanged, forward-looking trading funds have a very strong willingness to price upwards. This is also why we cautiously remain optimistic about BTC's Q3 trend.
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.625, in an upward phase.
EMC Labs
EMC Labs was created in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. Focusing on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industrial foresight, insight, and data mining as core competencies, committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets' benefits to humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
