BTC Price Prediction: Long-Short Game Under Technical Correction and Institutional Adoption

• Technical indicators show BTC is in a short-term correction, but key support levels remain intact
• Institutional adoption and whale selling create market sentiment divergence
• Bitcoin demonstrates hedging characteristics under geopolitical risks

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Potential Rebound After Short-term Correction

According to BTCC financial analyst Robert's technical analysis, BTC is currently trading at 102,630.85 USDT, slightly below the 20-day moving average (105,401.32). The MACD indicator shows bullish momentum accumulating (15.59), and the price is between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, indicating a potential short-term correction. Robert believes that if BTC can maintain support at the lower Bollinger Band of 100,888.53, it may rebound towards the upper band at 109,914.11.

Market Sentiment Divergence: Institutional Adoption and Whale Selling Coexist

BTCC analyst Robert points out that Texas establishing the first state government Bitcoin reserve and Metaplanet CEO's public support for Bitcoin as a hedge asset demonstrate continuing institutional adoption. However, whale addresses depositing 400 BTC to Binance (cumulative sales of 6,900 BTC) may create short-term selling pressure. Despite geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has shown remarkable stability, which may signal market bottoming.

Factors Affecting BTC Price

Crypto and Macroeconomic Events to Watch Next Week

Federal Reserve Chair Powell will be the focus next week, conducting back-to-back hearings on the semi-annual monetary policy report. The June 25th House Financial Services Committee hearing and June 26th Senate Committee hearing will focus on reviewing inflation control measures and potential rate cut signals. The market will parse every word for clues about monetary policy direction.

Bitcoin faces a critical moment, with a Deribit report showing the largest quarterly options expiration on June 28th, with a key pain point at $100,000. This event may trigger significant volatility as traders adjust positions before settlement.

Asian regulatory pressure is intensifying, with Thailand's SEC set to block Bybit, 1000X, CoinEx, OKX, and XT exchanges on June 28th. Simultaneously, the Korean Central Bank Governor will meet with commercial bank leaders to discuss a won-pegged stablecoin framework, indicating increasing institutional involvement in digital assets.

Several Fed officials will also speak this week, including San Francisco Fed's Daley (June 24th), Bowman on banking risks (June 24th), and Cleveland Fed's Mester (June 25th). These dispersed comments may amplify market reactions to Powell's main testimony.

Texas Establishes First State Government-Funded Bitcoin Reserve — Significance for BTC Adoption

Texas becomes the first U.S. state to establish a publicly funded, independently operated Bitcoin reserve, marking a significant milestone in institutional cryptocurrency adoption. Governor Greg Abbott signed Senate Bill 21, creating a dedicated fund independent of state finances and immune to regular fund reallocation.

This move contrasts sharply with Florida and Arizona's similar plans being scaled back. Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar will oversee the reserve, aiming to assess Bitcoin's potential as a strategic asset class. Bill sponsor Senator Charles Schwertner stated: "We can buy land, we can buy gold; the state should have the right to evaluate the best-performing asset of the past decade."

This development follows former President Trump's executive order about establishing a federal Bitcoin reserve, showing increasing bipartisan recognition of cryptocurrency's role in public finance. The legislation includes companion bill HB 4488 to solidify the reserve's legal status, regardless of future purchase decisions.

Metaplanet CEO Advocates Bitcoin as a Hedge Asset Amid Market Uncertainty

Metaplanet's CEO Simon Gerovich positioned Bitcoin as a resilient safe haven against macroeconomic turbulence. In comments reported by Jinse Finance, Gerovich stated: "In uncertain times, Bitcoin is a safe harbor — resilient, borderless, and unstoppable." This endorsement highlights growing institutional recognition of BTC's value storage characteristics.

These comments come as global markets grapple with inflationary pressures and geopolitical instability. Bitcoin's decentralized architecture and fixed supply continue to attract companies seeking alternatives to traditional hedging tools like gold or fiat currencies.

Dormant Bitcoin Address Awakens After 8 Years, Transfers 801 BTC During Price Volatility

As Bitcoin price remains stable above $100,000 for 45 consecutive days, a long-dormant wallet suddenly showed activity. Approximately 801 BTC (valued at $82.98 million at current prices) were transferred from an address inactive since 2017.

These transactions occurred as Bitcoin retreated from its June 16th peak of $108,990 to around $103,000. Early adopters transferring assets from vintage wallets typically indicate strategic portfolio rebalancing, though specific motives remain unclear.

Market observers note these transfers coincide with Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase after a strong rally. Despite typical summer liquidity conditions, the cryptocurrency continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, maintaining six-figure valuations.

Bitcoin On-chain Activity Diverges from Price Strength, Multiple Indicators Show Bear Market Signs

While Bitcoin price maintains the $100,000 level and hovers near its historical high of $111,700, on-chain data presents a drastically different picture. The latest glassnode report shows blockchain activity has dropped to levels typically associated with bear markets, creating a puzzling divergence from the asset's bullish price movement.

Daily trading volume has plummeted to 320,000 to 500,000 transactions, far below the peak of 730,000 in 2024. This decline primarily stems from the reduction in non-monetary activities such as Inscriptions and RUNEs, which previously caused network congestion. While monetary transfers remain stable, the overall decrease in usage signals a deviation from historical patterns—where price increases typically coincided with increased on-chain activity.

The dormant blockchain may indicate that investors are more inclined to hold rather than trade, or that speculative bubbles have temporarily left the network. This anomaly raises questions: Do current price levels reflect genuine demand, or are they speculative positioning ahead of potential ETF approval?

Bitcoin Remains Stable Amid Geopolitical Tensions, US Attacks Iranian Nuclear Facilities

After the US military directly struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, Bitcoin's price demonstrated unusual stability, a situation that would typically trigger market volatility. This muted reaction might be attributed to timing—late weekend night in the US—when trading activity is historically low.

Santiment data shows that mentions of "Iran" in crypto social channels almost instantly spiked after the attack. However, Bitcoin, often viewed as a geopolitical hedge, did not experience the expected immediate price fluctuations. Market participants seem to be adjusting their positions only after assessing the potential for larger-scale conflict.

Whales Continue Selling: 400 BTC Deposited to Binance, Cumulative Sales Reach 6,900

Bitcoin whale 12d1e4 deposited 400 BTC (approximately $40.59 million) to Binance 6 hours ago, the latest action in its ongoing sell-off strategy initiated on April 3, 2024.

The whale address has cumulatively sold 6,900 BTC (approximately $625.59 million), currently holding 3,100 BTC (approximately $318.4 million). Market analysts are closely monitoring this liquidity event, assessing whether it reflects diminished confidence in Bitcoin's short-term prospects or merely a strategic asset rebalancing.

Geopolitical Tensions and Cryptocurrency Market Stability

The US military's bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated tensions in the Middle East, with global analysts warning of potential retaliatory measures, including cyber attacks or disruptions to oil transportation routes. Despite heightened geopolitical risks, Bitcoin's price remains unusually stable, which Santiment attributes to the event occurring during a US weekend timeframe.

New York Democratic Congresswoman Ocasio Cortez called for impeachment proceedings against former President Trump, citing the need to contain Iran's nuclear capabilities. Approximately 40,000 US troops are currently stationed in the region, and with Trump threatening to use "much stronger force" against any retaliation, the situation could further deteriorate.

The cryptocurrency market responded quickly, with "Iran" mentions surging on social platforms. Bitcoin's price stability, contrasting with typical market behavior during geopolitical crises, suggests investors may be waiting for more definitive signals before adjusting their positions.

How High Can BTC Price Go?

Based on current technical aspects and market sentiment, BTCC analyst Robert offers the following predictions:

Robert emphasizes that short-term prices will oscillate in the 100,900-109,900 range, with a breakthrough of the upper rail potentially initiating a new upward trend. Institutional adoption progress may offset whale selling pressure, and Bitcoin's performance during geopolitical crises reinforces its 'digital gold' narrative.