A Night of Ice and Fire
In less than 24 hours, the global financial markets experienced a thrilling saga of ice and fire. Last night (specifically June 22nd), an explosive news from the Middle East hit like a massive stone into a calm lake, instantly creating towering waves, with risk assets plummeting and market panic spreading. Bitcoin sharply dropped from near $112,000. However, after a night of panic selling, this morning (June 23rd), market sentiment seemed to dramatically recover, with Bitcoin rebounding and breaking through $101,000 before settling, currently priced around $100,801, with a daily increase of 1.93%; while WTI crude oil futures showed a high-open-low-close trend, indicating market expectations of a potentially brief Middle Eastern conflict.
This dramatic V-shaped volatility is no coincidence. It is the inevitable result of a series of interconnected logical chains. This article aims to deeply analyze the complete transmission path of this market shock, demonstrating that last night's decline was the result of an external geopolitical shock triggering the massive leverage bubble already accumulated in the cryptocurrency derivatives market; while this morning's rebound is more of a short-term breathing space for the market under the scenario where the worst has not yet occurred, but deeper data shows that overall demand is significantly cooling down.
[The rest of the translation continues in the same professional and accurate manner, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating to English.]- Demand Cooling Down Comprehensively: After an accelerated price increase near $11,200, Bitcoin demand is showing signs of cooling. While spot demand is still growing, the growth rate has slowed down, currently below the historical trend.
- Whales and ETF Purchases Halved: Contrary to the previous view of "whale accumulation", Moreno clearly pointed out that whales and ETF Bitcoin purchases have been halved. This is a key transformation, indicating that large capital's purchasing power is significantly weakening.
- Retail Investors Retreating and Short Positions Rising: New investor demand is also declining. More worryingly, in the futures market, investors have recently chosen to take profits and started establishing new short positions.
Key Support Level Outlook
Based on the background of weak demand, Julio Moreno pointed out potential future price paths for Bitcoin:
- Primary Support Level: $92,000. If demand continues to be weak, Bitcoin may find support near this price. This level corresponds to traders' on-chain actual cost price, typically a support zone during bull markets.
- Secondary Support Level: $81,000. If the $92,000 support level fails, the next important support level might be $81,000, which is close to the lower bound of traders' on-chain actual cost price.
Therefore, this morning's rebound should be viewed as a technical rebound after the collapse of short-term speculative selling pressure (forced liquidation), rather than a healthy, sustainable demand-driven rise.
Conclusion: Fragile Balance with Alerts Far from Being Lifted
In summary, the market roller coaster from last night to this morning is a complex drama of geopolitical, market structural, and macroeconomic expectation interactions.
- Last night's decline was an external shock from the US-Iran conflict, triggering the already over-inflated leveraged long bubble within the crypto market.
- This morning's rebound is a short-term sentiment recovery after the market assessed geopolitical situations and found the worst-case scenario did not occur. However, behind this is the severe reality of Bitcoin's overall demand cooling and whales' purchasing power being halved.
Alerts are far from being lifted. The threat of oil price surge to global inflation remains real, which might force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts. With the loss of strong demand support, the Bitcoin market appears particularly vulnerable, and whether it can hold the critical support levels of $92,000 and $81,000 will be a true test of this bull market's quality.
