- Technical indicators show BTC faces short-term correction pressure, but the long-term trend remains intact
- Geopolitical crises cause market panic, but institutional buying may provide bottom support
- US state-level Bitcoin reserve policies initiate a new wave of institutional adoption
BTC Price Prediction
BTC Technical Analysis: Short-term Correction Pressure and Long-term Trend Observation
According to BTCC financial analyst Emma's technical analysis, the current BTC price is 102,794.85 USDT, slightly below the 20-day moving average (105,409.52), indicating short-term correction pressure. The MACD indicator (312.55/306.68) remains positive but with weakening momentum, and the Bollinger Bands show the price is near the lower band (100,916.35), potentially testing support. If it breaks below the 100,000 psychological level, it may further explore the 95,000 area.
Emma noted: 'The current technical aspect shows the market is in a healthy adjustment stage, with the key being whether it can maintain support at 100,000 USD. If it remains above this level, the medium-term outlook remains optimistic about breaking the previous high.'
Geopolitical Impact on Crypto Market: Bitcoin Faces Liquidity Test
BTCC analyst Emma interprets the latest market dynamics: 'US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities triggered risk-averse sentiment, causing Bitcoin to plummet in a single day. Simultaneously, exchanges experienced massive BTC outflows, indicating holders prefer cold storage. Texas passing the Bitcoin reserve bill is a long-term positive, but the short-term market sentiment index has dropped to 42 (panic zone).'
Emma added: 'The liquidation of $16 billion in long positions has intensified volatility, and the market needs time to digest geopolitical risks. The key observation point is whether institutional investors will buy the dip.'
Factors Affecting BTC Price
Bitcoin Massive Outflow from Centralized Exchanges Indicates Market Dynamics Shift
Last week, centralized exchanges recorded significant Bitcoin outflows, with 5,533.76 BTC leaving trading platforms. Bitfinex operated counter-trend, absorbing 4,459 BTC during the same period.
Binance experienced the largest capital exodus, reaching 8,422.02 BTC, while Coinbase Pro recorded a small inflow of 848.73 BTC. This divergent capital flow may signal that institutional investors are repositioning assets in anticipation of market changes.
US Airstrike on Iranian Nuclear Facilities; Bitcoin Plummets Amid Geopolitical Tension
The US used B-2 strategic bombers to conduct precise airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. President Trump announced the mission's success, emphasizing the aim to weaken Iran's nuclear capabilities. Tehran downplayed the damage, claiming only surface structure impacts, while experts noted these facilities are resistant to conventional attacks.
Iran threatened to block the global oil passage of the Hormuz Strait in retaliation, escalating supply disruption concerns. The US Congress initiated war powers debate due to heightened tensions. Amid geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin plummeted over $100,000, reflecting investor risk-averse sentiment.
Trump warned in a television address that further strikes would follow if diplomacy fails, positioning this action as a red line enforcement. Meanwhile, the US began evacuating citizens from Israel, indicating preparation for prolonged conflict. Risk asset markets became more volatile, with cryptocurrencies being a major sell-off area.
Crypto Market Sentiment Shifts to Panic, Index Drops to 42
The crypto fear and greed index plummeted to 42, entering the panic zone from the neutral area. Dropping 7 points from yesterday's reading of 49, it reflects intensifying investor unease.
The composite index weights six factors: market volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media trends (15%), survey (15%), Bitcoin dominance (10%), and Google search data (10%). Today's index change indicates multiple indicator sentiments have deteriorated.
Bitcoin Consolidates, Market Awaits Directional Catalyst
Bitcoin price trend remains subdued, currently trading at $103,869, slightly below the short-term key moving average. The cryptocurrency market currently shows neither clear bullish nor bearish tendencies, with thin trading volume and neutral technical indicators, suggesting a wait-and-see market state.
Technical analysis shows a stalemate between buyers and sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the neutral zone at 49.63, while the MACD histogram difference expanded to -201.72, indicating a slight bearish advantage. A trader noted: "This is the calm before the storm," emphasizing that Bitcoin often experiences explosive moves after compressed consolidation.
Market participants seem content to let prices fluctuate between support and resistance levels. The ADX indicator reading of 24.38 shows the current trend strength is sufficient to maintain trader attention but not enough to trigger decisive action. All eyes remain on Bitcoin, waiting for signals of its next significant move.
Bitcoin Experiences Leverage Liquidation, $160 Million Long Positions Cleared
Bitcoin price sharply dropped below $103,000, triggering a chain liquidation of $160 million in long positions on Binance, with days of leveraged holdings instantly evaporating. This bloodbath decline was accompanied by a net selling volume of -$100 million, indicating aggressive spot selling.
Market structure indicators hint at a potential turning point. The 396 Stock-to-Flow ratio and subdued stablecoin reserves suggest funds are still on the sidelines, while Santiment's realized market cap data shows $1.11 billion daily outflow—typical deleveraging behavior often preceding market bottoming.
This reset in Binance derivatives market cleared excessive speculation, creating conditions for healthier accumulation. Short-term holder participation has dropped to freezing point, with the HODL wave indicator confirming retail retreat. Such cleansing often plants seeds for the next rally.
Texas Governor Signs Bitcoin Reserve Bill, Establishing State-Level BTC Holdings
After Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed Senate Bill 21 (SB 21), Texas became the third state in the United States to list Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The bill authorizes the Texas Comptroller's office to manage cryptocurrency investments, specifically targeting assets with a market capitalization exceeding $500 billion for 24 consecutive months—currently, only Bitcoin meets this standard.
The bill passed the Texas House of Representatives with an overwhelming vote of 101-42 at the end of May. Lee Bratcher from the Texas Blockchain Committee expects the initial allocation to reach "tens of millions of dollars" and notes that while significant, this is still a conservative stance for an economy the size of Texas. Investment decisions will be entirely handled by the Comptroller's professional team.
This move follows similar initiatives in New Hampshire and Roswell, New Mexico, marking an acceleration of local government-level acceptance of crypto assets. The bill establishes a regulatory framework for state finances to engage with digital assets while setting strict qualification requirements, with all cryptocurrencies currently excluded except Bitcoin.
US Military Airstrikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities, Trump Announces Historic Action
President Trump confirmed US military airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, marking the first direct attack on Iran by the US in 50 years. Coordinated with Israel, the action aims to disrupt Iran's nuclear program more effectively than before. Trump will address the nation tonight, calling this a historic moment for global security.
Markets immediately reacted, with Bitcoin plummeting over $100,866 after the news broke. The New York Times reported that the US action was due to Israel's limited success in delaying Iran's nuclear program. Former Israeli Defense Minister GAR Brant publicly praised Trump's decision.
As tensions escalate, the US has begun evacuating citizens from Israel. The long-term stability of the Middle East situation and its impact on global markets, especially cryptocurrencies sensitive to geopolitical shocks, remains uncertain.
BTC Price Prediction: Outlook for 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040
Based on the comprehensive assessment by the BTCC analysis team, Bitcoin's price development may follow this trajectory:
| Year | Base Scenario Prediction (USDT) | Key Influencing Factors |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 85,000-120,000 | Halving Effect, ETF Capital Flows, Regulatory Progress |
| 2030 | 250,000-400,000 | Institutional Allocation Ratio, Lightning Network Adoption, Global Liquidity |
| 2035 | 600,000-1,200,000 | Sovereign Nation Reserve Competition, Smart Contract Ecosystem Maturity |
| 2040 | 1,500,000+ | Global Monetary System Restructuring, Energy Market Linkage Depth |
Emma specifically emphasizes: 'These predictions need to be adjusted monthly based on technical aspects, with particular attention to the supply contraction effect before the last BTC is mined in 2140.'
