BTC 104k.
During the preparation for the mid-year private board meeting of the chain, the chain pulled out all the annual-end reports from the past 5 years and reviewed them several times.
These texts written at that specific moment were concrete and authentic. Some predictions were correct, some were not. The accuracy is not that important. What matters is that these words can pull thoughts back to the emotional state from N years ago, removing the filter of memory. Standing at that time point facing the misty future, reflecting on one's thoughts and feelings. Looking back now, some mist has cleared, and the comparison evokes many sighs.
At the end of 2020, the chain wrote, "This bull market is likely to be a structural bull market". What does this mean? It means "not a comprehensive surge, but some sectors can keep up with or even outperform Bitcoin, while other sectors won't have any market activity."
However, the so-called institutional bull year of 2021, in hindsight, was still created by a few major players in the crypto heavily leveraging. That bull market's structural differentiation was not yet very significant. We still witnessed a typical altcoin season - altcoin index soaring while BTC market cap proportion dramatically declined.
In a word: chaotic.
Due to different statistical ranges and methods, views on the altcoin season may vary. But from people's general fuzzy memories, periods like late 2017 to early 2018 (bull tail), early 2019 (IEO), late 2021 to early 2022 (bull tail), and early 2023 (inscriptions + meme) all feel like a "wild bee swarm" scenario.
The altcoin season at the bull tail follows the diffusion effect principle. The revival cycle's starting point is when major players who survived the deep bear market begin to stir up trouble again.
However, if cycle after cycle, the same few platforms keep manipulating and creating various recycled gimmicks, essentially it's just a continuous game of "money stimulation-volume brushing-coin issuance-attracting investors-investors providing profits-profits used for money distribution".
From 2017's ICO, to 2019's IEO, to 2022's Non-Fungible Token, 2023's inscriptions, 2024's meme, the underlying current is platforms' so-called "innovations". These "innovations" merely allow lower-quality coins to flood the market with lower barriers, making it smoother for investors to enter this circular game.
But can this industry continue developing through such financial circulation? The chain reflected and questioned this in the 6.19 internal reference 《催熟土狗玩法日薄西山》.
Clearly not.
When the industry reaches a point where meme manufacturing produces thousands of coins daily, the market has already entered a state of oversupply.
On one side is altcoin oversupply, on the other side is BTC market share continuously rising, it's predictable that coins capable of creating instant wealth stories are becoming fewer.
When the market is no longer a place where blind buying guarantees profits, structural differentiation occurs.
From 2023 to 2025, BTC market share rose from 40% to nearly 65%, while the total number of various inscriptions, memes, on-chain memes, and "air" coins accumulated to an astronomical figure. This explains why in this bull market, those who bet correctly might have profited immensely, while those who bet wrong remain trapped, eagerly awaiting the so-called "altcoin season".
A structurally differentiated market inevitably creates structurally differentiated profits and losses.
Even in a bull market, the crypto market is no longer a place where everyone makes money. In other words, the market has become more challenging.
This validates what the chain said years ago: institutional bull market means institutions aren't vegetarians, they aren't here for charity. When institutions enter, retail investors' good days are over.
In this cycle, we're just beginning to glimpse Wall Street's financial prowess.
How could they possibly play memes and on-chain memes with retail investors? What a joke!
Wall Street's first move was spot ETFs, directly diverting BTC spot trading volume. Now, over a year later, BTC ETF trading volume is reportedly 10% of total BTC spot trading. Perhaps in a few years, ETFs could capture half or more of BTC trading volume. That money will be in the US stock market, not playing with crypto retail investors.
Wall Street's second move is compliant stablecoins, squeezing USDT's market through legitimate channels. Compliant stablecoins will do legitimate business like integrating online payments across industries and earning reasonable legal profits from backed assets like short-term US Treasury bonds. Money from compliant stablecoins won't be used to support on-chain memes for retail investors.
Wall Street's third move is harvesting retail investors. The US stock market was once retail-dominated. Wonder why retail investors have been essentially eliminated, obediently handing money to institutions? When Wall Street can collaborate with presidents, continuously release news, create reversals, manipulate markets, what can a small retail investor do?
After these three moves, the bull market has reached its current state.
The upcoming market won't be more comfortable for retail investors.
Survival competition is brutal. Don't fantasize about easily winning in a comfortable environment.
Dancing with wolves, only the brave and strategic are qualified to survive.
