Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expire $3.9 Billion… Investor Sentiment Shakes on Middle East Risks

On June 20th (Friday), a total of $3.9 billion (approximately 5.421 trillion won) worth of cryptocurrency options contracts will expire on Deribit, the world's largest cryptocurrency derivatives exchange. While this expiration date is unlikely to create extreme price movements in the short term, it is expected to serve as a critical watershed moment in gauging market sentiment, especially in conjunction with the deteriorating Middle East situation. This Friday, approximately 34,000 Bitcoin (BTC) option contracts will expire, with a nominal value of around $3.3 billion (approximately 4.587 trillion won). The put/call ratio is 1.16, indicating a slight prevalence of downward betting. The 'Max Pain' point is $106,000 (approximately 147.34 million won), about $1,500 higher than the current Bitcoin spot price. This point could potentially trigger volatility before and after the option expiration. Option open interest is most concentrated in the $115,000-$140,000 price range, with over $17 billion (approximately 2.363 trillion won) of pending funds in each segment. This demonstrates that the market still maintains an expectation of an upward trend. According to Deribit, Ethereum (ETH) options will also expire simultaneously, with approximately 215,000 contracts and a nominal value of $546 million (approximately 758.9 billion won). ETH's Max Pain price is $2,600 (approximately 3.61 million won), with a put/call ratio of 0.68, indicating a more optimistic market flow compared to Bitcoin. GreeksLive, which analyzes market trends based on option data, reported a strong "pessimistic sentiment" among market participants this week. They particularly noted that if Bitcoin falls below $104,000 (approximately 144.56 million won), it could have a severe negative impact on altcoins. Additionally, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are heightening overall risk-averse sentiment. The actual market situation is not particularly bright. As of June 20th, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped 2% from the previous day to $33.7 billion (approximately 4,686.3 trillion won). Bitcoin has been hovering around $104,600 (approximately 143.94 million won) with minimal movement over 24 hours, down 3.8% from the weekly high. Ethereum is barely maintaining the $2,500 (approximately 3.47 million won) level with limited movement. In the altcoin market, while most are trading flat, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) uniquely rose 7.7%, and the recently notable Hyperliquid Token declined 4.8%, cooling off its short-term momentum. The major option expiration in June can determine the direction of medium-term investment sentiment rather than causing immediate significant price fluctuations. Investors need to comprehensively consider option trading volumes, market reactions, and connections to global events, beyond just price.