The altcoin strong market that the cryptocurrency market has been waiting for has not yet fully begun, but industry experts are unanimous that the moment is not far off. The recent Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates has prevented an immediate surge, but it is interpreted as laying the groundwork for a new bull market in the long term. The analysis that this is currently just a 'quiet accumulation period' is gaining traction.
The US Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%~4.50%, marking its fourth consecutive hold. This is because high inflation has not been completely controlled. The core inflation rate that the Fed is focusing on is still at 2.8%, exceeding the target of 2%. As the 'cheap money' flowing into the market is limited, a broad altcoin rally is not easily emerging. Traditionally, altcoin rallies tend to be triggered by interest rate cuts, liquidity expansion, and economic stimulus measures.
Nevertheless, experts analyze that the current altcoin market has entered an 'accumulation phase'. This is a period of silence where prices are neither sharply declining nor surging, and experienced investors are using this time to build their buying positions. Experts believe that major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are moving based on individual positive news and development updates, but a mega-trend that shakes the entire market has not yet appeared. Overall, it is pointed out that the altcoin market will gain momentum only when Bitcoin (BTC) dominance drops and market liquidity recovers.
In this context, the 'Altcoin Index' has drawn attention. This indicator is currently aligned with the 4-year cycle interval, which is similar to the pattern observed before the bull markets in 2017 and 2021. The indicator suggests that the altcoin market could enter a large-scale upward trend once again. Especially if the US Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in the second half of this year, the possibility of large-scale funds flowing back into cryptocurrencies is increasing.
Ultimately, the argument that the altcoin season is not 'canceled' but 'delayed' is gaining credibility. The key for investors to watch is the change in Bitcoin dominance and interest rate policies. The point at which these two axes change could be the turning point for a new altcoin rally.
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