The number of long-term held BTC coins is surpassing new issuance, further strengthening the narrative of scarcity, according to an analysis. This phenomenon, where long-term held coins exceed new supply for the first time, is noteworthy for suggesting significant changes in market structure.
According to a report released by Fidelity Digital Assets on the 18th, an average of 566 BTC per day is being absorbed into the 'ancient supply' area with no movement record for over 10 years. This is higher than the current daily BTC mining volume of 450 coins. The report interpreted this as a signal that BTC supply reduction is occurring faster than expected.
Fidelity research analyst Zack Wainwright stated, "The strong conviction of ultra-long-term holders continues to have a lasting impact on the market," evaluating the supply reduction as proof of investor confidence. He added, "The daily proportion of this ancient supply is gradually increasing, with decreases occurring in less than 3% of cases."
Currently, the number of ancient supply coins exceeds 3.4 million, accounting for about 17% of total supply. Some of these are estimated to be coins potentially held by Satoshi Nakamoto, with a significant portion possibly being 'lost assets'. However, the report notes that after the 2024 US presidential election, some long-term holders have increased the frequency of moving assets or realizing profits in response to market uncertainty.
In fact, Fidelity reported that from June 8th, the frequency of supply reduction for addresses holding coins for over 5 years increased more than threefold compared to normal, which could explain the recent price stagnation as some volume enters the market. BTC has only risen about 12% so far in 2025, showing a relatively weak trend compared to previous strong market years.
Fidelity also analyzed that long-term holding behavior and increasing ancient supply could become a distinctive characteristic of BTC in the long term. They particularly forecast that institutional investor inflows and the spread of digital asset-based investment products will accelerate this trend. Wainwright emphasized, "This is a unique characteristic that no existing asset possesses," and "At times of increasing demand, scarcity can work even more valuably."
Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm glassnode recently pointed out changes in BTC holding period profit realization patterns. While whale addresses holding over 12 months were previously the main sellers, recently short-term investors holding less than 12 months have accounted for 83% of total net profit realization. Particularly, accounts holding for 6-12 months recorded daily profits of $652.56 million, the second-highest this year.
This pattern can be interpreted as an indicator reflecting a psychological turning point between long-term and short-term investors, potentially emerging as a key variable in determining BTC price direction.
Real-time news...Go to Token Post Telegram
<Copyright ⓒ TokenPost, Unauthorized Reproduction and Redistribution Prohibited>
