Fidelity Digital Assets, a major US asset management firm, recently diagnosed in a report that significant changes are occurring in the Bitcoin (BTC) supply structure. Since the halving in April, Bitcoin classified as 'ancient supply' - which has been stored for over 10 years and not traded - has begun to exceed new issuance, according to the analysis.
According to the report, approximately 550 BTC on average per day are entering the ancient supply segment, while the Bitcoin currently supplied to the market through mining is limited to about 450 BTC per day. This means that the volume of long-term holdings is increasing faster than the circulation speed of Bitcoin in the market. If this trend continues, it is expected to have a significant impact on Bitcoin liquidity.
Already, about 17% of the total Bitcoin supply is considered 'non-liquid' assets that are essentially difficult to trade. Fidelity predicted that this proportion could reach up to 30% by 2026. A decrease in tradable volume could create upward price pressure if demand remains constant.
This report is evaluated as a more concrete framework of Bitcoin's *scarcity*. While it was already known that it is an asset with limited supply, the data showing that the actually tradable volume is gradually decreasing can significantly influence future investor decisions. Fidelity emphasized that "such structural changes will create an environment favorable for long-term investors".
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