Bitcoin is showing a short-term adjustment flow in the $100,000 range, entering a medium-term cycle readjustment period. With a -6.23% correction from the peak, a 64.33% increase after the halving, and a 565% rise from the low point, the main selling volume is concentrated in the $104,000-$109,600 range.
Drawdown from ATH
As of June 19, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $104,923, up 0.36% from the previous day.
The correction rate has expanded to -6.23% as it continues a gradual adjustment from the all-time high of $111,891 recorded on May 22, which is about 3.19 percentage points additional correction from the previous week's -3.04%.
While maintaining the $100,000 range, the short-term adjustment width is expanding again, strengthening a wait-and-see sentiment. This suggests a complex interaction of profit-taking sales and slowing market inflow funds.
The slightly increased adjustment width implies the possibility of continuing the adjustment phase for a certain period until buying sentiment recovers, and the future potential to challenge the high point depends on the recovery of the medium-term trend line and changes in market liquidity.
Days After Halving
Currently, 426 days after the fourth Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024, Bitcoin has risen approximately 64.33% from the price of $63,850 at that time. The rise rate has decreased by 5.58 percentage points from the previous week's 69.91%, reflecting the short-term adjustment trend.
According to past cycles, Bitcoin showed a full-fledged rally within 6 months after the halving, with the peak typically reached between 12-18 months. Currently, it is entering that period, simultaneously reconfirming the upward trend and digesting high-point sales.
If this cycle develops similarly, the bullish peak is expected around October 21, 2025, with about 124 days remaining. The subsequent cycle low point is in October 2026, and the next halving is in March 2027, with 489 and 992 days remaining, respectively.
Low-to-Low Comparison
Bitcoin has risen approximately 565% from the cycle low of $15,770 recorded on November 21, 2022, with 942 days having passed. Considering the average low-to-low cycle of about 1,430 days in past cycles, it can be seen as entering a section about 66% through the entire cycle.
This point typically coincides with a period where the upward trend slows down or fluctuates near the peak. Recent trends also show adjustments within a certain range and sideways movement rather than strong increases. With about 489 days remaining until the cycle ends, it is necessary to focus on market supply and demand balance and changes in investment sentiment rather than directional movement.
Price Visit Frequency Heatmap
According to the heatmap, Bitcoin is forming the densest settlement density in the $104,000-$109,600 range. This price range has been the focus of trading during the past month's repeated adjustments and recovery, establishing itself as the market's medium-term balance point. Especially the $106,200-$109,600 range is the lower adjustment section from the previous high point and a battlefield of intense buying and selling, likely to serve as a key support and resistance level in short-term trends.
In the 1-week period, settlement frequency was most concentrated at $104,400-$105,500. After the recent adjustment, price stability continues in this range, which is expected to function as the main trading density and short-term equilibrium point. If support is secured in this range, retesting the $107,700 high point is possible, but if the lower level is breached, additional downward pressure could increase to the $102,200 range.
In the short-term (1-day) flow, settlement is concentrated at $104,175-$104,850. While intraday sales digestion and repurchase attempts were active, it has not strongly broken through the upper resistance ($105,525), maintaining a limited box range with supply and demand balance. Currently, the short-term direction is likely to be determined by the strength of low-point support and the result of upper resistance contest.
Overall, there is still a 'unvisited sales vacancy' with low settlement density at the high point (above $110,000), and volume expansion is essential for attempting to rebreak the upper level. Meanwhile, as the mid-level support continues to be built, the medium-term cycle is interpreted as a phase of sales digestion and energy reorganization.
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