Geopolitical tensions and major financial events are intersecting, causing the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin (BTC), to show short-term adjustments. Crypto investment and research firm AM Management, through its weekly report, analyzed that the military conflict between Israel and Iran and global economic events, including the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, are having a complex impact on the market.
According to the report, Bitcoin closed at $105,380, a 0.58% decline from the previous week. With the escalation of tensions in the Middle East potentially leading to commodity price instability and supply chain disruptions, investment sentiment towards risk assets has been constrained. Particularly, Iran suggested indirect provocations and disruptions to energy transportation routes instead of direct retaliation, while the US acknowledged Israel's right to self-defense, effectively eliminating the possibility of restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA). These geopolitical risks triggered a surge in oil prices, and the cryptocurrency market was also affected, with Bitcoin unable to avoid short-term downward pressure.
Simultaneously, market participants are closely watching the US FOMC meeting scheduled for June 18th. AM Management predicted that the interest rate policy, dot plot, and economic outlook announced at the meeting could have a decisive impact on the direction of risk assets. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate freeze is currently 96.8%, but if the announcement is more hawkish than expected, there is room for additional market adjustments. Simultaneously, indicators from major global countries, including Japan's interest rate decision, are identified as factors that could influence future financial market movements.
From a market supply perspective, there are cautious but gradual signs of recovery. Bitcoin's market capitalization remains at 6th place in global assets at $2.095 trillion, with open interest increasing by 503. Particularly, while some asset management firms have slightly expanded their long positions along with increases in long positions from other reporting groups, the analysis also suggests a relatively conservative stance as short position increases are larger.
Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin is currently forming a descending triangle on the 4-hour chart. The breakthrough of the downward trend line on the chart will serve as a turning point for trend reversal, and failure to break through could potentially test lower support levels. In terms of market dominance, Bitcoin rose 0.23% to 64.73%, while Ethereum (ETH) showed a certain strength, rising 1.61% to 9.45%. Meanwhile, the dominance of stablecoin Tether (USDT) also rose to 4.75%, indicating a strong risk-averse tendency.
Internal issues within the cryptocurrency ecosystem are also burdening the market. This week, major projects including Arbitrum (ARB), LayerZero, and ZkSync are scheduled for large-scale token unlocks, and AM Management emphasized the need to be wary of how this supply increase could impact price adjustments.
Ultimately, amid concerns that Middle Eastern geopolitical risks could transform into structural elements and policy risks, the key variable is whether Bitcoin can maintain support in the early $100,000 range. Simultaneously, the results of the June FOMC meeting are expected to be a critical test that will determine the medium-term direction for cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets.
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