While the Bitcoin (BTC) market appears quiet, on-chain data tells a completely different story. As exchange and OTC wallet balances continue to decrease, this indicates a 'stealthy accumulation phase' suggesting reduced supply and long-term holding. Bitcoin futures open interest is hovering near all-time highs, and with market liquidity sharply declining, a 'calm before the storm' atmosphere is detected, where significant price fluctuations could be triggered at any moment.
Recently, Bitcoin's price has been steadily rising even amid the lowest trading volume since the 2023-2026 cycle. Individual investor activity has been subdued, with funding rates in perpetual futures products hovering near negative territory. This background presents an unusual contrast to the asset price trend heading towards an all-time high.
However, even in such an abnormal environment, there are clear trends within the market. Notably, the amount of Bitcoin held in centralized exchanges continues to decrease. From early 2025 to the present, the volume leaving exchanges has dropped by 14% to around 2.5 million BTC, a level not seen since August 2022.
This movement suggests a growing investment tendency that prioritizes storage. Holders are moving coins to cold wallets or custodial wallets, gradually reducing liquid sellable quantities. Particularly, large institutions and whale investors tend to clearly withdraw coins to external wallets immediately after purchasing. This lowers short-term selling pressure and reinforces the 'accumulation phase'.
With Bitcoin futures market open interest currently near all-time highs, the market is extremely tight. In the current situation, the possibility of volatility explosion is increasing, creating an environment where unexpected sharp rises or drops can occur. While the situation may seem calm, massive movements are being prepared beneath the surface.
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