Bitcoin is showing a stable trend again, reducing its short-term decline after adjusting from its all-time high. Currently, trading density is concentrated at major price levels on the transaction heatmap, exploring signals for the next trend reversal amid supply and demand balance in the mid-to-late cycle.
Drawdown from ATH
As of June 12, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $108,490, down 1.18% from the previous day.
The adjustment rate has narrowed to -3.04% with a gradual correction from the all-time high of $111,891 recorded on May 22. This is a recovery of about 3.11 percentage points from the previous week's -6.15%.
While maintaining the late 10,000-dollar range, the partial reduction in short-term decline has rekindled expectations of a resumption of the upward trend. This suggests that technical support perception is effectively working alongside the digestion of profit-taking selling.
The renewed reduction in adjustment can be interpreted as an early signal of buying sentiment recovery, with the possibility of retesting the high point depending on the support of the medium-term trend line and overall market capital inflow.
Days After Halving
Currently, 419 days after the fourth Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024, Bitcoin has risen approximately 69.91% from the price at that time of $63,850. The rise has increased by 5.44 percentage points from the previous week's 64.47%, reflecting the recovery of short-term decline.
According to past cycles, Bitcoin showed a full-fledged rally within 6 months after halving, with peaks typically reached between 12-18 months. Currently, it is entering that period, simultaneously reconfirming the upward trend and digesting high-point selling.
If this cycle develops similarly, the bullish peak is expected around October 21, 2025, with approximately 131 days remaining. The subsequent cycle low is in October 2026, and the next halving is in March 2028, with 496 and 999 days remaining, respectively.
Low-to-Low Comparison
Bitcoin has risen about 588% from the cycle low of $15,770 recorded on November 21, 2022, with 935 days having passed. Considering the average low-to-low cycle of about 1,430 days in previous cycles, it can be seen as having passed about 65% of the entire cycle.
This point typically coincides with a slowdown in the upward trend or repeated fluctuations near the peak. Recent trends also show adjustments and sideways movements within a certain range rather than strong increases. With about 496 days remaining until the cycle ends, it is necessary to focus on market supply and demand balance and changes in investment sentiment rather than directional movement.
Price Visit Frequency Heatmap
According to the heatmap, Bitcoin is currently forming the densest settlement density in the $107,000-$109,000 range. This price range is where new selling volumes were formed during the strong recovery of the past week, showing an upward shift in the short-term equilibrium point. Particularly around $108,000, which is the most concentrated settlement frequency level, there is a high possibility of new buying sentiment entering during an increase, and it is expected to serve as a key support area that will be first defended during a decline.
In contrast, the range above $110,400 to $111,900 remains a 'unexplored selling volume gap' with low settlement density. This area is where selling dominance has repeatedly appeared after peak formation, and can easily reverse to a decline due to supply and demand imbalance. To break through this thin settlement range at once, strong new capital inflow and overall trading volume expansion are necessary; otherwise, the possibility of technical pullback remains open.
The current market faces strong selling resistance near the previous high ($111,891). In the short term, reorganization is taking place around the $108,000 level, with more emphasis on securing support and organizing selling volumes rather than attempting to break the high. In the medium term, whether this range can be converted to a new support base will be a critical watershed in determining the continuation of the trend.
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