TokenPost
Hello. This is the TokenPost podcast. Today, we'll take a closer look at the TokenPost weekly research by AM Management on June 11th. We'll briefly highlight the key points amid the complex details of last week's cryptocurrency market and macroeconomic trends, and what to focus on this week. Let's get started right away. Looking at last week's market, Bitcoin showed little change on a weekly basis. Almost zero, at plus 0.09%. But the US employment indicators were quite interesting.
Host
Yes, that's right. The May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). It came in lower than expected, below 139,000. At first glance, it might seem like employment is slowing down, but the hourly wage growth rate is still relatively high.
TokenPost
Wages continue to rise.
Host
That's right. This means inflation concerns are not subsiding. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, and past figures were adjusted downward. These are somewhat mixed signals.
TokenPost
Yes, it's really confusing. Employment is decreasing, but wages are rising. This must be a headache for the Federal Reserve.
Host
Yes, exactly. Looking at the employment numbers alone might slightly lean towards a rate cut, but the wage increase is holding it back. If this continues, the Fed will find it difficult to rush a rate cut because they have a goal of price stability.
TokenPost
That's right.
Host
So the market also sees the July rate cut as uncertain. Looking at the FedWatch data, June is almost a freeze. 99.9% of the time, the Fed will have to be cautious for the time being.
TokenPost
I see. Then this week will be extremely important. Especially today. June 11th, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement.
Host
Correct. This is the highlight of the week. Depending on the May CPI results, the market's short-term direction or expectations for the June FOMC can change significantly.
TokenPost
The FOMC is next week on the 18th.
Host
Yes, so this CPI is really important. Additionally, there will be the Producer Price Index (PPI), unemployment claims, University of Michigan inflation expectations, and so on. Oh, and in the cryptocurrency market, Aptos and Immutable have large-scale lockup releases.
TokenPost
Ah, the lockup release volume is also a factor of volatility.
Host
That's right. It could affect individual coin prices. There are also external variables like AI-related announcements at Apple WWDC and US-China trade negotiations.
TokenPost
There's so much to check. So in this unstable situation, how are the internal fund flows in the cryptocurrency market? Are there any changes?
Host
First, Bitcoin's market cap has slightly decreased. It's 2.103 trillion dollars, ranking 6th in global assets. The total cryptocurrency market cap is similar to last week, around 3.25 trillion dollars.
TokenPost
The overall pie remains similar.
Host
Looking at dominance, Bitcoin's share slightly increased to 64.58%, while Ethereum decreased to 9.30%. Interestingly, the stablecoin Tether, USDT, has seen its dominance rise to 4.75%.
TokenPost
Tether's dominance is rising. What could this mean?
Host
The research is watching this USDT dominance crossing 5.10%. Looking at past data, when it crosses this level, market participants tend to increase cash holdings, showing a stronger risk-averse tendency. This analysis suggests it could put short-term pressure on Bitcoin prices.
TokenPost
Ah, cash demand is increasing, investors are becoming cautious. I heard investors were moving differently.
Host
Yes, this seems to reflect the current market sentiment. Looking at futures market data, short-term traders like leveraged funds have actually increased long positions, betting on a rise.
TokenPost
Short-term traders expect an increase.
Host
Yes, they're expecting a short-term rebound. On the contrary, asset managers and institutional investors have reduced long positions and increased short positions, betting on a decline.
TokenPost
Oh, institutions are moving in the opposite direction.
Host
That's right. They've turned much more cautious and conservative. So there's a growing gap in perspectives between short-term players and long-term investors. Overall, the market can be interpreted as somewhere between neutral and cautiously optimistic.
TokenPost
I see. It's interesting. The perspectives of short-term and long-term investors are diverging. So, considering all of this, how does the research view the market going forward? I'm particularly curious about whether Bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level and how altcoins will perform.
Host
Analysts believe that maintaining the $100,000 level for Bitcoin is technically and psychologically crucial. If this price level is maintained, it suggests the possibility of continuing the current upward cycle.
TokenPost
Yes, $100,000 is an important benchmark.
Host
And another thing to note is the Bitcoin dominance chart. It's currently drawing an ascending wedge pattern. Technically, this is a signal that a significant directional movement, either up or down, is likely to occur soon.
TokenPost
Ah, a wedge-shaped pattern. So the direction is important.
Host
That's right. If the bottom of this pattern breaks, funds that were focused on Bitcoin could flow into altcoins. It could be a signal of the so-called altcoin season. On the contrary, if the top of the pattern is broken, Bitcoin's strength may continue, and altcoins may perform relatively poorly.
TokenPost
Bitcoin investors really need to watch this dominance trend carefully.
Host
That's correct. It's no exaggeration to say that the direction of altcoins depends on this dominance trend.
TokenPost
To summarize, employment seems to be slowing down, but wage pressure remains, so the Fed will likely continue to maintain a cautious mode, and the market is really paying attention to this week's CPI announcement. And within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, short-term traders and institutions seem to have divergent views.
Host
That's right. It's a very complex situation involving macroeconomic variables, the possibility of changes in the Fed's stance, and the psychology of market participants. In the short term, as you mentioned, whether Bitcoin maintains its $100,000 support and in which direction Bitcoin's dominance moves will be key to determining the market's flow.
TokenPost
Yes, we hope that the content we've looked at today helps even a little in understanding the rapidly changing market. Especially in a situation where institutional investors and short-term traders have such divergent views, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will take. Perhaps this uncertainty could bring new meaning to those looking for another opportunity. These are just some thoughts. This concludes the TokenPost podcast.
