Murphy

Murphy

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17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观！| 近3亿用户的共同选择就在币安：https://t.co/5pQWuny9gU | #OKX web3入口一个就够 https://t.co/YwY7pIgKzB

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Viewpoint: Whether on-chain or on exchanges, liquidity is terribly low, and the risks are getting higher and higher?

In May, the mysterious “big wallet” and “old wallet” made large sales for the first time. Has BTC entered the top range?

Viewpoint: Indicators show that it is difficult to guess whether to be bullish or bearish, but the market may have to choose a direction again

The correct method can restore the truth of the facts Yesterday, <Glassnode> officially released a tweet about the growth of BTC's Realized Cap, roughly meaning: After a period of stagnation in April, BTC's RC has increased by nearly $30 billion, with a monthly increase of 3%. The rise of RC indicates that new funds are re-entering the market, but its growth rate is still lower than the strong trend in November-December 2024. (Figure 1) twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Has ETH's "changing of the guard" ended? A few days ago, a friend asked about the concentration of ETH chips. I previously shared that the Herfindahl index can well reflect the concentration issue. It can measure the share of network addresses in the current supply, with a higher index indicating that chips are concentrating among fewer holders, while a lower index suggests a more uniform distribution of chips. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Abnormal on-chain data! Serious divergence has emerged Wu Xiong wrote at the end of his tweet: "Heavyweight economic data is about to be released, and the market is clearly concerned about how the actual economic data will perform. Many may seek safe-haven assets before，before is published next Wednesday...", but what I see from the on-chain data is not a "possibility", but a true "fact". (Figure 1) twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...

Why is <BTC> at $81,000 so resilient?! The tough tariff policy exceeded everyone's expectations, with VIX surging and S&P and Nasdaq plummeting... According to past patterns, <BTC> should have already fallen into the $70,000 range, or even the $60,000 range would not be surprising. However, the fact is that <BTC> has repeatedly found effective support at over $81,000! Many people are puzzled by this, believing that there is no reason for such strong support here and finding it hard to understand..... twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Long-term holders become the key factor in suppressing BTC's reversal Typically during bull market pullbacks, BTC's price repeatedly challenges the STH-RPC - short-term holders' average turnover cost, currently at $93,000; since February this year, BTC has not seen a substantial rebound. It has either been a low-volatility sideways movement (such as 2/5-2/23) or rebounds falling short of expectations (such as 3/13-3/25). (Figure 1) twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

This cycle has a total of 3 obvious trend markets. The first segment is from October 2023 to January 2024 (BTC from $27,000 to $47,000); the second segment is from January 2024 to March 2024 (BTC from $40,000 to $73,000); the third segment is from October 2024 to January 2025 (BTC from $60,000 to $108,000). Each of these segments can be perfectly measured by the "MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Indicator" to determine the range of changes in momentum.

The culprits behind the amplified BTC volatility — leveraged liquidations and liquidity depletion

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