It's over! It's completely collapsed!
After a super bull market lasting nearly 17 months and a 15-fold increase in stock price, Pop Mart experienced a correction of approximately 44% in just four months, with its market value evaporating by over HK$200 billion. From trendy toys and figurines to financial products, and then back to plastic toys, Pop Mart's bubble cycle perfectly validates Soros's "reflexivity theory," which states that stock price and popularity are mutually causal.
- Positive cycle: Stock price rises -> Media coverage -> IP appears more valuable -> More people buy -> Good performance -> Stock price continues to rise
- Negative Cycle: Stock price falls -> Market questions the IP's fading popularity -> Scalpers dump shares -> Premium disappears -> Ordinary investors feel it's worthless and stop buying -> Performance under pressure -> Stock price continues to fall. Once the trend reverses, the forces that once propelled the rise will become the driving force accelerating the fall. Does this seem familiar? This spiraling, top-down pattern also has a version in the crypto. Yes, I'm talking about "MicroStrategy."
The market assumes Michael Saylor has unlimited refinancing capabilities, meaning unlimited rights to print shares and buy more coins. This gives MSTR an extremely high holding premium. If BTC continues to fluctuate at high levels, or if the pace of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion is disrupted, and macro liquidity tightens slightly...
The high premium of MSTR will disappear first, leading to a valuation correction.
- Subsequently, the value of BTC assets plummeted, killing its net worth; this is a textbook example of the "Davis Double Kill."
Of course, I'm not making a prediction, just a possibility. If we have to learn something from Pop Mart, I hope it's about not repeating their mistakes.
