The impact of elections and monetary policy, not the BTC halving, is expanding.
);)
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said on the podcast "The Wolf Of All Streets" on the 14th that the argument that Bitcoin's four-year cycle has been broken misses the point. "The cycle is still there, but now the main determinants are the U.S. election schedule, central bank policy, and capital flows into risk assets," he said.
Thielen noted that Bitcoin's major peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 were all concentrated in the fourth quarter, which he explained was more closely aligned with the US presidential election cycle and political uncertainty than with the halving. "As political uncertainty increases, policy momentum weakens, which impacts investor sentiment across risk assets," he said.
This coincides with Bitcoin's failure to sustain a significant upward trend even after the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut. Thielen concluded that, unlike in the past, institutional investors have become the primary participants in the cryptocurrency market, and they are acting conservatively amidst the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy signals. He also assessed that the pace of capital inflow has slowed compared to last year, limiting strong upward pressure.
He predicted that unless liquidity is clearly restored, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a range-bound correction phase rather than enter a new surge. Accordingly, he added, investors should consider political catalysts such as the US election, fiscal policy discussions, and changes in the monetary environment, rather than focusing solely on the halving schedule.
In October, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also claimed that "the four-year cryptocurrency cycle is over." However, he explained that this wasn't because the halving's impact had disappeared, but rather because Bitcoin's price had been driven by global liquidity from the beginning. Hayes pointed out that past bull markets had ended when liquidity in the US dollar and Chinese yuan had contracted, and that the halving was an overblown factor.
Market analysts believe both analyses suggest that Bitcoin's price-determining structure is much more deeply tied to macroeconomic and political variables than in the past.
Reporter Jeong Ha-yeon yomwork8824@blockstreet.co.kr
