HTX DeepThink: The easing of global trade tensions boosted the crypto market, and the Fed’s decision will become the biggest variable in the short term

Mars Finance News, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that this week's global trade situation has transmitted positive signals, providing short-term support for risk markets and laying the foundation for medium to long-term capital confidence. The long-standing tariff dispute between the US and Europe has achieved a substantial breakthrough, and the reached agreement not only alleviates transatlantic trade friction but also provides a new policy anchor for global supply chain stability. Meanwhile, high-level consultations between China and the US are continuing, indicating room for easing in key areas such as trade, technology, and monetary coordination. Regional trade negotiations like Japan-US and US-Canada-Mexico are also accelerating, presenting a new trend of "multilateral relaxation and local breakthroughs". Such trade easing trends help stabilize corporate expectations, improve cross-border capital flows, and provide bottom support for risk appetite, thereby supporting the short-term rebound logic of risk assets, including Bitcoin.

In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday (US time) is one of the most critical events in the global financial market this week. Although the market generally expects the meeting to maintain unchanged interest rates, the greater focus is on Fed Chairman Powell's press conference. Currently, the US is facing "dual pressure" - core inflation is slowly declining but remains above the policy target, while the US government's fiscal deficit remains high with significant debt refinancing pressure. In this context, the market is highly concerned about whether Powell will release "more moderate" or even dovish signals to alleviate capital market anxiety about the duration of high interest rates. If Powell conveys a dovish stance of "controllable inflation + fiscal affordability", not only will US stocks benefit, but high-beta assets like ETH and SOL may also receive emotional boost; conversely, if his attitude is tough, Bitcoin and Altcoins might again enter a high volatility zone.