Circle has made a new move. On July 9, CoinDesk reported, citing sources, that Circle has quietly reached a USDC revenue-sharing agreement with Bybit, the world's second-largest crypto exchange. This is another transaction by Circle in expanding USDC usage scenarios after collaborations with Coinbase and Binance.
Meanwhile, Circle also announced a partnership with OKX, providing a one-to-one USDC fiat conversion channel for its 60 million users. Just a few weeks ago, Circle completed its IPO and listed on the New York trading platform, with its current market value exceeding $44 billion. Behind this series of high-frequency actions is Circle's ambition to play a larger role in the stablecoin market. However, in a market long dominated by Tether with an unclear compliance path, it is far from conclusive whether Circle's approach truly has an advantage.
Bybit Protocol: Continuing the Old Path of "Sharing Money for Promotion"
According to informed sources, the agreement between Circle and Bybit is roughly: the more USDC Bybit holds, the more it can earn from Circle's reserve interest. This approach is not new. Circle had already bound with Coinbase in a similar manner, paid Binance over $60 million in cooperation fees, with monthly revenue linked to USDC balance, calculated according to a certain SOFR rate standard. At first glance, Circle's use of "interest" to buy "market share" seems like a win-win. But looking closely, it essentially buys growth through interest sharing, with the interest source being U.S. Treasury yields rather than user fees.
This incentive mechanism also has some issues:
· Sustainability of growth is questionable: Currently, U.S. Treasury rates are above 5%, giving Circle ample space to share interest. But once rates drop and the revenue space shrinks, will platforms still be willing to promote USDC?
· Fragile cooperation: Binance has previously adjusted its USDC support due to regulatory risks, indicating that such cooperation is not solid.
· Traffic control not in Circle's hands: The actual customers are in the hands of trading platforms, leaving Circle in a relatively passive position.
Using income to "buy channels" to some extent indicates that USDC has not yet formed true market momentum.
OKX Collaboration: Reinforcing Key Infrastructure for "Dollar Overseas"
Circle's collaboration with OKX involves providing a one-to-one USDC to USD deposit channel. This collaboration is not just about conversion convenience but is a core piece of Circle's "global dollar router" construction:
· In countries without local USD accounts, USDC becomes a tool for non-U.S. users to access USD assets;
· OKX serves as a local traffic entry point, handling fiat deposit and on-chain circulation;
· Circle acts as a "stablecoin central bank" for clearing and reserves.
When USDC becomes a globally interchangeable USD expression, its network effect and transaction friction reduction will grow exponentially.
A more realistic question is: Do users really need to convert USDC to USD? Within trading platforms, USDC is essentially a "pricing unit". Most users still hold it to participate in crypto trading, not for frequent fiat conversion.
Therefore, OKX's collaboration is part of the "compliance narrative" rather than a key factor directly enhancing USDC market share.
Stock Performance Stable, but Valuation Implies Risks
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Current CRCL stock price is around $199, with nearly 80% growth in the past 30 days. Analysts have differing views on its future trajectory.
Seaport Research gave a "strong buy" rating on June 20, with a target price between $215 and $250. However, analysts from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Mizuho predict the stock might fall to the $80-$85 range, citing increasingly fierce market competition and potential challenges to Circle's international expansion from global central bank digital currency (CBDC) adoption. Nevertheless, Wall Street's 12 analysts generally maintain a "hold" rating, reflecting the market's complex sentiment about its prospects.
It's worth noting that the current market valuation of Circle is more like a bet on future stablecoin regulatory frameworks. If the Federal Reserve or Treasury tightens rules or a competitor finds an alternative path, Circle's business model still faces pressure. Moreover, Circle's high valuation includes expectations of "becoming global stablecoin infrastructure", which is not a story that can be realized in the short term.
Fierce Competition in the Stablecoin Market
For Circle, the biggest competitor is undoubtedly Tether (USDT). According to the latest data, Tether's USDT remains the market leader. Finery Markets' report shows that despite a significant gap with USDT, USDC grew 29-fold in institutional OTC trading volume in the first half of 2025, demonstrating strong institutional adoption trends.
The market has also seen emerging stablecoin projects like Global Dollar (USDG), supported by Robinhood, which also promote adoption through built-in revenue-sharing mechanisms. USDG was launched in the EU on July 1, 2025, and has partnered with numerous industry players like Kraken, Mastercard, and Paxos, attempting to create an open network that rewards participants.
Facing competition, Circle not only relies on existing advantages but is actively exploring diversified revenue sources. For example, the Circle Payments Network launched earlier this year aims to provide instant stablecoin settlement services for banks, neobanks, and digital wallets, reducing dependence on reserve interest income.
If Tether was born from the gray market's dominance, Circle is constructing a new order of financially infrastructuralized stablecoins. The future competition might ultimately not be about "which stablecoin is larger", but who can become the core router of the dollar internet and thus gain discourse power in global transactions.
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