On June 30, according to The Block, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein first covered the stablecoin issuer Circle, giving it an "outperform" rating with a target price of $230.
"Circle is building a market-leading digital dollar stablecoin network with regulatory advantages, liquidity first-mover position, and top-tier channel partnerships," the team led by analyst Gautam Chhugani noted in Monday's client report, "We believe CRCL is an essential target for investors to layout the next decade's internet-level financial infrastructure."
Analysts expect stablecoins to upgrade from crypto market payment tracks to the entire internet's payment infrastructure, with total supply growing 16-fold from the current $244 billion to $4 trillion within ten years. This growth will stem from "transformative developments" in crypto and tokenized capital markets, payment systems, and stablecoin native financial services.
Chhugani emphasized that with the recent passage of the GENIUS Act by the US Senate, USDC will become the largest regulated stablecoin under the act, and this "regulatory first-mover advantage" will make it the preferred partner for internet platforms (not limited to trading platforms). Its $61.4 billion liquidity reserve is difficult to replicate for newcomers lacking crypto channel flywheels, with most competitors struggling with the "cold start" problem.
However, Bernstein predicts Circle will only capture 30% of this $4 trillion potential market—a mere 5 percentage point increase from its current 25% market share. Currently, Tether (USDT) remains dominant with a 65% market share and $158.5 billion in supply. As a foreign issuer, Tether may need to establish a US subsidiary to address new regulatory requirements.
Chhugani noted that Circle's stock currently trades at 56 times adjusted EBITDA for 2026 and 28 times for 2027, reflecting investors' strong demand for pure stablecoin assets. Bernstein used a ten-year discounted cash flow model to value it at $230, corresponding to about 35 times 2027 adjusted EBITDA. The institution expects the company's revenue to grow at a 47% CAGR and EBITDA to grow 71% from 2024-2027, with USDC's proliferation offsetting revenue pressure from interest rate factors—recommending to seize buying opportunities during market pullbacks.