Author: Blockchain Knight
Original Title: Altcoin Season Disillusionment, AI Siphoning, Bit Stock Diversion - Crypto Gasping Under the "New Three Mountains"
Recently browsing various social media, I saw many critiques or mockeries about the current state of the crypto industry, including some who have gained "fame and fortune" in this industry. I will not comment on right or wrong for now.
From a practitioner's perspective, there's no need to stand on a moral high ground and curse like a saint just because the industry is in another low period. Perhaps they forget that without the existence and development of this industry, they would not have achieved their current success. The phrase "never forget the original intention" essentially expresses this meaning.
Leveraging these taunts, I want to discuss the current challenges and opportunities in the crypto industry.
Of course, we must first acknowledge a reality: the entire crypto circle is facing a low period similar to 2018 or 2022, not just because of price issues, but also due to people's doubts and wavering about the industry.
If the past two years were years of hope, now most people scoff at such hope, largely because the long-anticipated "altcoin season" never arrived, and the industry seemingly did not accumulate any new narratives in the past two years, or some new narratives became cannon fodder. These factors combined have become mountains weighing on participants.
But what might truly crush the industry may not come from within the industry itself, but from an external factor - the incredibly rapid development of AI in recent years, which has seized most investors' attention, and the crypto industry is no exception. In the past year, I learned that many practitioners, especially developers, have turned to the AI circle, which became the final straw that broke the camel's back.
Today, with the altcoin season vanishing, "no new narratives" commentary surging, and AI frantically capturing the market, all that remains for the crypto circle are sighs from practitioners.
Oh, and the recently booming "Bit stock" track, which directly and justifiably diverted the last bit of liquidity.
So, facing these subjective and objective problems converging into a river, the crypto circle is confronted with another low period. But as the saying goes, without a low, how can there be a climax? So where are the current and future opportunities for this industry?
First, regarding the altcoin season issue, we won't predict whether there will be another crazy altcoin season like in 2017 or 2021. But if we look beyond price and multiples, the past two years still saw numerous wealth creation stories.
It's no longer a "full-scale assault" of massive flooding, but merely some sectors or specific areas dancing, yet still rewarding for participants with certain insights. So this trend will likely continue, requiring us to adjust our mindset and expectations.
Comparing to the internet era, when Amazon's stock price dropped 90% during the internet bubble burst, it subsequently rose over 600 times in the next 20 years, over 40 times its previous peak. Finding crypto's "Amazon" has become a new industry opportunity.
Secondly, regarding new narratives, look at the recently hot stablecoins. Whether in the West or East, everyone is discussing them. At the recent Shanghai Lujiazui Forum, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned stablecoins for the first time, which is telling. Meanwhile, Xinhua Net also rarely published an article introducing stablecoins over the weekend.
If stablecoins are considered just a small industry application, that would underestimate their influence. I believe its successful breakout is no less significant than Alipay's launch, which solved online payment security issues and enabled the subsequent development of e-commerce and various online trading activities. Perhaps looking back in 10 years, we'll realize the change happened that year.
Simultaneously, stablecoins' prosperity will greatly expand the crypto circle's user base and truly open the market, potentially bringing the long-awaited new users and the industry's "iPhone moment". However, it's still just beginning and may require 1-2 years of consolidation.
Lastly, regarding AI, I've long believed that blockchain is not entirely a technology serving humans, but to a large extent, it will be AI's native tool, solving information transmission between machines and authentic interactions between machines and humans. Currently, this direction seems to be proving true.
With Agent development, ensuring secure and reliable communication between machines that can be verified by humans seems impossible without blockchain, unless we want future Agents to be uncontrolled and detached from reality.
This direction is still very early for blockchain. Of course, when I mention Agent integration with blockchain, I'm not referring to the hyped concept from January, which was mostly just speculation.
So, when changes are happening or quietly approaching, what we can do is not resist, but gladly accept and go with the flow.
However, I believe cursing is not adaptation, but a struggle of inability to accept. After expressing emotions, we must move forward because rationality will always triumph over sentiment, and the crypto industry will not remain in a low period forever. Why not rise against the wind once more?
