Bitcoin (BTC) price has fluctuated over the past month, but according to a technical analyst, there is a forecast that it has the potential to rise by more than 300% in the current upward cycle. The key indicator of the analysis is the 'AVIV Ratio', which compares the active capitalization of Bitcoin (funds actually moving in the market) to the total invested capitalization (excluding mining rewards from realized capital).
Technical analyst Gert van Lagen recently stated in his X post that Bitcoin's price is likely to continue rising until the AVIV ratio reaches past peak levels. He proposed the point where the AVIV ratio exceeds 3 standard deviations (+3σ) from the mean as a criterion for determining the cycle peak. In the past, this condition coincided with the peak of Bitcoin's bullish trend, observed when it reached $1,200 in 2013, $20,000 in 2017, and $69,000 in 2021.
Additionally, Bitcoin holdings through OTC (over-the-counter) trading have significantly decreased since 2025. This suggests a reduction in the number of Bitcoins circulating externally and is interpreted as a sign that major institutions like BlackRock, Metaplanet, and Strategy are strategically *accumulating* Bitcoin in the market.
As the current AVIV ratio has not yet reached the peak levels of previous cycles, analysts believe Bitcoin could reach at least $330,000 in this upward market. They argue that there is no reason for the upward trend to stop until the Aviv ratio rises above +3σ.
If Bitcoin continues this strong market trend, the analysis suggests that institutional buying and structural supply reduction are intertwined. As the market approaches the cycle peak once again, this indicator is increasingly likely to serve as a sophisticated compass for judging future price movements.
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