The future opened by quantum computing is a realm of infinite possibilities where opportunities and risks intersect. Global tech companies like IBM, Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) have already launched cloud-based quantum computing services, and startups like Quantinuum and PsiQuantum have already reached unicorn status. While projections suggest quantum computing could add at least $1 trillion to the world economy by 2035, the hidden security threats within technological advancements are demanding serious preparation from companies worldwide.
The greatest concern is that most encryption technologies currently in use could be rendered ineffective against quantum computers. Algorithms based on prime factorization, like RSA encryption, would take hundreds of trillions of years on classical computers, but quantum computers using Shor's algorithm could dramatically reduce this time. Widely used symmetric encryption like AES would also have its security strength halved by Grover's algorithm, effectively making AES-128 equivalent to 64-bit security. Consequently, transitioning to enhanced encryption techniques like AES-256 is becoming increasingly important.
The most seriously monitored method is the 'Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL)' attack. This involves cyber attackers collecting data currently protected by today's security technologies, with the intention of decrypting it in the future when quantum computers can break the encryption, thus stealing sensitive information. Data with long-term value such as health records, financial information, confidential government documents, and military information urgently require security reorganization, regardless of immediate quantum threats.
Accordingly, the US government has clearly emphasized the need to transition cryptographic technologies through measures like the 'National Security Memorandum-10'. However, most experts believe this transformation will take at least 10 years, with updates to equipment like satellites, transportation systems, and ATMs being an even more long-term challenge.
The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been conducting a post-quantum cryptographic standard designation project since 2016 and announced the first cryptographic standards in 2024. These cryptographic methods, based on mathematically structured lattices and hash functions, have relatively high resistance to quantum attacks. Apple (AAPL) has introduced the 'PQ3' protocol to enhance iMessage security, and Google is experimentally applying quantum encryption algorithms to Chrome, with major tech companies taking action.
Quantum computers are also considered 'game changers' in artificial intelligence (AI) development. Quantum Machine Learning (QML) particularly has a high potential to implement more complex and powerful models than current deep learning systems. However, this simultaneously could create an 'uninterpretable black box' problem. Since its basic structure is based on quantum characteristics like superposition, entanglement, and interference, interpreting decision-making processes in human language could become challenging. This could lead to serious issues in areas requiring systems with derivable decision grounds, such as autonomous driving, financial judgment, and medical diagnosis.
The US government and national agencies have therefore adopted 'Crypto Agility' as a key principle, meaning a system structure that can quickly switch to new cryptographic algorithms when security threats are detected. Moreover, according to Mosca's Theorem, if the sum of the security requirement period (X) and the transition period to a new cryptographic environment (Y) exceeds the quantum computer decryption point (Z), action must be taken immediately.
Actual implementation of quantum security faces practical barriers such as technology personnel shortages, unexpected vulnerabilities in cryptographic algorithms, and supply chain risks. Microsoft (MSFT) recently discovered instances of accidentally exposed cryptographic keys in two apps, demonstrating how human errors can have fatal security implications.
The time available before the quantum era is limited. Experts estimate the point when quantum computers will have full cryptographic decryption capabilities between 2035 and 2060, but this timeline could be brought forward depending on technological development speed. Security experts unanimously agree that action cannot be delayed.
Foreign Policy's technology columnist Vivek Wadwa warned, "If humanity fails to respond to AI and cannot control an even more powerful technology like quantum technology, the consequences will be enormous." This means proactive responses are essential in all aspects: security, legislation, education, and technological capabilities.
Now is the time for practical transition strategies for the post-quantum era. Step-by-step preparations are required, including cryptographic inventory checks, prioritizing long-term protected data, establishing transition schedules, securing budgets, and strengthening monitoring systems. The only solution is to respond before quantum technology completely neutralizes the entire security environment.
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