Market Assessment of Tesla and Cryptocurrency Potential
Tesla's market Capital fluctuates from 370 billion USD to 1.6 trillion USD, depending on each analyst's perception. These numbers vary based on the view of the company: as an electric vehicle manufacturer or a technology giant pushing forward robotaxi and humanoid robot projects.
According to Bloomberg, the predicted Tesla stock price in the next 12 months ranges from 115 USD to 500 USD, wider than any split ratio in the S&P 500. This gap is the source of debate.
Robotaxi Potential and Elon Musk's Ambitions
Elon Musk believes the future of autonomous transport is complete automation. Converging in the plan to launch the robotaxi service expected on June 22 in Austin, planned to operate a small fleet of Model Y. However, Musk's schedules often encounter issues. He once called himself the "FSD crybaby" due to delays in fully autonomous driving software development.
Investors seem to overlook those failures. Herbert Ong, owner of a Tesla YouTube channel with over 100,000 Watchers, notes: "The automotive industry is just secondary". Musk acknowledges: "If someone doesn't believe Tesla will succeed in automation, they are not suitable to be an investor."
Autonomous Driving Software and Legal Issues
Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) program is still not qualified for complete automation. It still requires human supervision. The system uses cameras, instead of lidar or radar, which Musk believes is easier to expand and cost-effective. Critics warn this brings risks, especially in low light or harsh weather conditions. Currently, the system is being investigated by the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) after several serious accidents.
Tesla's long-term plan is to develop a driverless ride-hailing service, highlighted by the Cybercab project model, which remains in idea form and has not yet generated real revenue.
Competition in Electric Vehicle Market and Risks from Competitors
While Musk pushes automation, Tesla's core electric vehicle business is under significant pressure. In 2024, about 80% of revenue comes from vehicle sales. Meanwhile, market share from energy sectors, home storage batteries, or charging stations still contributes a small but growing part. Chinese competitor BYD is closing in and even surpassed Tesla in Europe in April, predicted to potentially dominate globally by year-end.
Last year, Tesla sold less than 1.8 million vehicles, lower than one-third of General Motors' sales and less than half of Ford's. It is expected that this year, sales will slightly decrease to 1.7 million vehicles due to production disruptions, weak sales in the US and EU, and political controversies damaging the Tesla brand.
Profits from the electric vehicle division, once leading the industry, are expected to drop to 17%. Despite still receiving emission credit subsidies, new government policies could reduce this potential.
Tesla is currently valued at over 138 times its expected 2025 profits, while GM and Ford only reach single-digit levels. According to analysis, only 20 USD of Tesla's 322 USD stock price is based on real profits, with the remaining 95% being expectations and speculation.
Investors and Cryptocurrency Investment Strategies
Analysts from Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas, RBC, Tom Narayan, and Stifel, Stephen Gengaro, all view Tesla more as a risky investment than a stable business. Jonas estimates the value of self-driving and robotaxi ideas could bring 250 USD per share, while robot value is zero.
Gengaro sets 311 USD for FSD and robotaxi projects, and 29 USD for Optimus – the humanoid robot Musk promises can "perform dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks", but is still in the remote-controlled demonstration stage. He believes that one day, Optimus could generate revenue up to 10 million USD, 100 times Tesla's current sales.
Meanwhile, Alphabet's Waymo has operated over 250,000 paid trips per week in four US cities, using modified electric Jaguars. Their valuation is currently around 45 billion USD, still far from Tesla's.
Tesla remains the highest-valued company in the "Magnificent Seven" group – including technology giants and Elon Musk. Tesla's P/E is over 138, many times more than Microsoft's around 32, indicating high speculative potential for its stock.
