Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have raised the approval odds for most crypto ETFs. XRP is now among the top. According to the updated forecast, XRP has a 95% chance of receiving ETF approval in 2025. This is a jump from earlier expectations that hovered around 75% or lower.
Strong Regulatory Signals Is the Reason for the Analysts’ High Approval Odds
The main reason for the shift is the SEC’s increased engagement with filings. According to the analysts, this level of communication is a clear green light. The list of assets gaining attention includes Solana, Litecoin, and Cardano. Each of these tokens now has a 90–95% approval forecast.
For XRP, the filing came on January 30, 2025. Major firms like Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin are behind the effort. The SEC acknowledged the filing, and the final deadline for a decision is October 17, 2025. XRP is currently viewed by regulators as a commodity. That’s another strong factor helping its chances.
Analysts also noted that XRP has CFTC-regulated futures already trading. This shows existing regulatory structure, which helps ETF applications. Hence, they are near-certain that an XRP ETF will get the green light.
Solana, Litecoin, and a few others now also sit at 95% approval odds. These assets have multiple backers and early filings. Solana’s final SEC deadline is October 10, 2025. Like XRP, it is also seen as a likely commodity with CFTC-regulated futures.
XRP ETF Nears Certainty While SUI, Tron Face Hurdles
Yet, some assets still lag behind. SUI and Tron are examples with lower approval odds or deadlines beyond 2025. SUI has only a 60% chance of approval, with no current futures market. Tron’s application is not due until 2026.
James Seyffart also clarified the timeline in a follow-up post. Approval may come as early as this summer or may wait until October or later. He said it’s now more a question of when, not if.
This news signals growing institutional interest in a broader range of digital assets. XRP’s rise to the top of the approval odds is especially notable. Once seen as a risky bet due to past legal battles, it now leads the pack. That change reflects how fast the regulatory mood has shifted.
Approval isn’t guaranteed. But odds near 95% are as close as it gets in today’s crypto landscape. In an earlier report, Coingape noted that the US could also approve a spot XRP ETF after Canada approved three XRP ETFs.
Nate Geraci added momentum to the ETF conversation, agreeing that approvals are highly likely in 2025. Most notably, Geraci believes BlackRock will join the race for Solana and XRP ETFs. According to him, if BlackRock steps in, it could dramatically boost credibility and speed. Institutional backing like the one from BlackRock could shape the entire ETF rollout phase.
