Solana (SOL) trades at $145 today, June 20, after falling by 14% in the last month. Trader conviction towards the altcoin is also waning, as 24-hour trading volumes fell by 16% at press time to $2.64. As the altcoin continues to move sideways, three charts have emerged revealing why $200 might remain elusive for the Solana price in the near term.
Why Solana Price May Not Reach $200 Soon
After a commendable performance in January 2025 that led to the price of Solana printing a fresh all-time high at $295, bears have gained control, with SOL shedding 50% of its value since then. Moreover, since falling below $200 in February, Solana has been unable to reclaim this psychological level, and three charts reveal why this target could remain elusive.
- Daily chart shows bears remain in control
- Open interest remains high despite falling SOL price
- DappRadar chart shows declining network activity
Daily Chart Shows Bears Remain in Control
The daily Solana price chart shows that a bearish crossover has emerged between the 50-day SMA and the 150-day SMA, which indicates that the short-term momentum is weakening. This crossover shows that bears are tightening their grip on SOL, making a rally to $200 less likely to happen in the near term.
The other bearish sign on this chart is the RSI, which has remained below 50 for three weeks. At press time, this indicator stood at 450, which is a sign that the Solana price forecast is bearish, and sellers have the upper hand.
As bears remain in control, SOL price has lost crucial support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $152. Dropping further below this could trigger a fall to $135, and possibly $95.
Open Interest Remains High Despite Falling SOL Price
High open interest also puts a Solana price recovery at risk, as data from Coinglass shows that SOL’s OI stands at $6.54 billion. When open interest remains high despite SOL price declining, it may have a bearish implication on the price as funding rates are still positive. This could suggest that longs are behind the high open interest, and liquidations may trigger a sharp selloff.
Moreover, when the open interest fails to fall at the same rate as the price, it could indicate that traders are maintaining their positions despite the lack of a strong conviction of where the price is headed. If there is a sudden move in price, the position may face liquidation, and this could derail a Solana price recovery to $200.
DappRadar Chart Shows Declining Network Activity
Data from DappRadar highlights a bearish Solana price outlook due to falling network activity. This platform shows that dApp volumes recently reached $297 million, which is notably lower compared to the May high of $1.03 billion.
Network usage has also fallen, as the 30-day unique active wallets stand at 33 million, which represents a 25% decline. The dip could be attributed to fading meme coin activity, as CoinGecko data shows that the top meme coins on the Solana blockchain have shed gains over the past month.
In summary, Solana price faces bearish headwinds as technicals show that sellers remain in control of the price action. Meanwhile, overleverage and declining network activity are also affecting the price action. These factors are impacting SOL’s ability to reach $200.
