Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around 145.35 million won ($104,500), and amid a tense silence, the major on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant has raised an alarm. According to a recent report, Bitcoin's demand indicators have fallen to a historical low, and based on this, projections suggest that BTC prices could drop to 127.88 million won ($92,000) or even 112.59 million won ($81,000).
A particularly noteworthy aspect of this analysis is the sharp decline in ETF inflows centered on institutional investors. Since April, ETF net inflows have decreased by over 60%, and the rate of coin accumulation by whale investors has also been halved. CryptoQuant's demand momentum indicator is currently at an all-time low, suggesting that the market's 'demand base' has rapidly weakened.
However, the on-chain data specialist glassnode does not interpret this phenomenon solely pessimistically. They view the temporary slowdown in demand as part of the cryptocurrency market's maturation process, diagnosing it as a transitional period of 'institutionalization'. In fact, derivatives trading volume is up to 16 times higher than spot trading, and transactions from wallets with large Bitcoin holdings remain steady.
Cryptocurrency trading firm Flowdesk diagnoses the market as 'accumulating strength' rather than 'collapsing'. Flowdesk noted the growth of XAUT, which is linked to gold prices, and Token-based real-world assets (RWA), evaluating this as a potential new upward signal.
Meanwhile, the gap between whales and retail investors is becoming more pronounced. According to Santiment's analysis, wallets holding over 10 BTC have increased by 231 in the past ten days, while small wallets holding 0.001-10 BTC have disappeared by 37,465 in the same period. This 'retail exit-whale buying' pattern has historically been a precursor to strong rebounds. Therefore, some experts are paying attention to the possibility that the current silence could be a 'smart money' accumulation phase.
The movement of Nasdaq-listed Semler Scientific is also drawing attention. The company aims to hold 10,000 Bitcoins by the end of the year and plans to secure up to 105,000 by 2027. Currently holding 4,449, Semler plans to issue stocks and adjust debt for future funding. However, the stock price dropping by around 40% since the beginning of the year is a concern.
Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance at 144.57 million won ($105,150), while Ethereum (ETH) is hovering around 3.49 million won ($2,510). Gold prices are maintained at around 4,674,000 won ($3,366) per ounce due to safe-asset preference, and the Japanese Nikkei index started with a firm tone while monitoring China's interest rate policy.
Amid macroeconomic uncertainty and a still precarious demand base, Bitcoin is finding a new equilibrium point in the hands of seasoned investors without a clear direction. At this point where the gap between on-chain data and market sentiment is widening, the next move seems to depend on the major players.
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