As the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed the decision on approving a spot XRP ETF, the investor prediction platform Polymarket has seen the probability of ETF approval soar to *90%*. With expectations rising that XRP could enter the ETF market following Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), institutional investment inflow and market expansion are anticipated to be a critical turning point for XRP's future.
According to Polymarket, the approval prediction probability has rapidly increased from 70% to 90% in recent weeks. The prediction market has attracted approximately $95,000 in trading volume, which is evidence of strengthening investor confidence. If the ETF is actually approved, XRP would be listed on traditional stock exchanges, accessible without a digital wallet, and the entry barrier for institutional investors is expected to be significantly lowered.
Despite this, the SEC continues to avoid giving a definitive answer. Recently, the SEC announced a 35-day review extension for the spot XRP ETF proposed by Franklin Templeton and initiated a public comment period. As a result, the final decision has been pushed to the second half of 2025, with analyses suggesting a procedure similar to the Ethereum ETF. Simultaneously, the same procedure is being applied to the Solana (SOL) ETF, creating uncertainty across the related markets.
In contrast, Canada is seen as being ahead of the United States in terms of regulatory clarity and speed. Purposes Investments, 3iQ, and Evolve have already received XRP ETF approval from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC), with Purposes launching a 'Zero Fee' product that waives fees until February 2026, drawing attention. The XRP ETF currently records approximately $8.3 million in assets under management.
XRP's price maintained a stable trend despite temporary liquidation imbalances. While long position liquidations to short positions spiked by 8,466% over 12 hours, resulting in $508,000 in liquidations, the price only rose by 0.2%, maintaining the $2.15 level. This suggests that while ETF optimism stimulated buying, the market did not overly pre-price the development.
In the political sphere, as former President Trump strengthens his pro-cryptocurrency stance, the possibility of ETF approval appears to be increasing. In a recent speech, Trump mentioned that the U.S. should become the center of cryptocurrency innovation, hinting at regulatory relaxation and market openness for cryptocurrencies. His statements are interpreted as potentially having a political influence on the SEC's future decision.
If XRP's ETF approval becomes a reality, it could be a turning point that accelerates the cryptocurrency market's integration into the institutional framework, going beyond merely launching a financial product. Investors are closely watching the SEC's next move, keenly anticipating how ETF allowance might impact global fund reallocation.
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