1. Market observation
Keywords: LABUBU, ETH, BTC
The Federal Reserve announced at this week's interest rate meeting that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations, but the overall stance was hawkish, pointing out that short-term inflation expectations are still high and listing tariffs as the main upside risk. Trump expressed dissatisfaction with this, calling for a sharp interest rate cut of 100 to 250 basis points and criticizing the Fed chairman's policy. Fed officials are divided on future policies, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts this year and seven believing that interest rates will remain unchanged. Current inflation is close to the 2% target, but has not yet been fully reached, and economists warn that premature rate cuts could lead to a rebound in inflation.
In addition, about $6.5 trillion of U.S. stock options and derivatives contracts will expire on Friday. Although this "Triple Witching Day" event may not directly cause violent fluctuations on the day, it may lay hidden dangers of volatility in the market next week. The founder of research institution Asym 500 LLC pointed out that since May, the intraday volatility of U.S. stocks has been relatively mild. Thanks to the "pegging effect" formed by a large number of put option transactions at the beginning of the year, the price of the S&P 500 index tends to converge to the strike price of high-volume options. Analysts believe that this expiration date may become one of the largest expiration events in history, and investors need to be alert to potential market volatility risks. In terms of geopolitics, despite the tense situation between Israel and Iran, the market sensitivity has decreased.
Xiao Feng, Chairman and CEO of HashKey Group, said at the HashKey Exchange "New Vision Fourth Salon" on June 18 that the virtual asset industry has entered the second growth curve stage, and the industry focus is shifting from "digital native" represented by Bitcoin to "digital twins" represented by stablecoins and asset tokenization. He pointed out that digital twins are the biggest innovation in distributed ledger technology, of which stablecoins and asset tokenization are the most representative forms. Stablecoins are essentially tokenized currencies, with both legal and technical attributes. They are considered to be the best form of currency at present and will occupy an important position in the future global financial system. He also mentioned that compliant exchanges such as HashKey Exchange have basic capabilities in regulatory compliance, asset custody and clearing and settlement, and can better undertake the implementation of digital twin business, and are expected to become the hub of global virtual assets.
Due to the "Juneteenth Festival", the US stock market was closed on June 19, and the crypto market trend was very flat. The price of Bitcoin has remained basically unchanged in the past three days, and the liquidation in the past 24 hours was less than $100 million. According to Nancy Lubale's analysis, the escalation of geopolitical tensions has increased investors' risk aversion, and the demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and US Treasury bonds has increased, while the demand for risky assets such as Bitcoin has decreased. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's maintenance of interest rates has strengthened the trend of the US dollar and put pressure on Bitcoin. Technically, the price of Bitcoin is subject to the resistance of multiple moving averages near $106,000, the market trading volume is sluggish, and the relative strength index is close to the midline, indicating that the market is in a wait-and-see mood. If the moving average resistance is broken in the short term, Bitcoin may have the opportunity to challenge the high of $112,000, but the current momentum is insufficient and it may continue to consolidate. According to the data analysis platform Swissblock, Bitcoin has been under market selling pressure since June. Although the price has rebounded recently, the trading volume is still low and the upward momentum is insufficient. If demand continues to be weak, Bitcoin may drop to the support range of $94,000 to $97,000 in the short term, and the market needs more buying demand support to achieve a breakthrough. Many analysis agencies such as CryptoQuant, Glassnode and Flowdesk have pointed out that the market is characterized by low volatility, narrowing price ranges and weakening on-chain activities, with retail participation declining and institutional investors becoming the dominant force. Among them, CryptoQuant warned in a report on June 19 that if demand continues to deteriorate, Bitcoin may fall back to the support level of $92,000 or even $81,000. Although spot demand is still growing, it is below the trend level.
Solana's current price is fluctuating in the key support range of $140-145, which is regarded as a key point for potential trend reversal. Analyst VipRoseTr pointed out that SOL's current price is $145.94, and it is testing the golden Fibonacci retracement range of 0.618 to 0.786, which has always been regarded as a strong trend reversal support area. Investors are advised to arrange long orders in the range of $128-140, with target prices of $204.31, $229.01 and $258.45 respectively. Analyst Jimmy Aki said that if the price of SOL falls below the $140 support, it may trigger an accelerated downward trend, with the target pointing to the $102-103 area, a drop of about 30%. On the contrary, if it can break through $160-170 and is accompanied by an increase in trading volume, it may reverse the current bearish pattern, and the upward target may point to the $180-$220 range. In addition, the Solana ETF submitted by VanEck was registered with DTCC on June 18, which is considered as the preliminary preparation for the approval of the ETF. Although the SEC recently postponed its decision on the Franklin Spot Solana ETF, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas believes that the probability of approval is still as high as 90%, which may inject confidence into the market. The short-term trend of Solana will depend on the performance of the $140-145 support range and the market's expectations for ETF approval.
In the Altcoin market, MEME coin LABUBU fell 23% in the past 24 hours, falling for three consecutive days, and its market value has fallen from a recent high of $60 million to $27 million. The decline may be related to the short-term collapse of the price of Labubu trendy toys. Since the afternoon of June 18, Pop Mart officially launched a large-scale restocking operation, which caused the price of Labubu trendy toys to fall rapidly. According to reports, Pop Mart’s restocking may be carried out for three consecutive days starting from June 18. In the Solana ecosystem, crypto lawyer Gabriel Shapiro proposed the idea of forking Solana and launched an experimental chain called Gorbagana, whose token $GOR once reached a market value of $40 million and is currently reported at $33.35 million. In addition, the market value of $YOURSEL launched by @thedulab, a developer who has received the attention of the founder of a16z, and the TikTok Internet celebrity dog $shiyo on Bonk also once reached around $2.2 million. In contrast, the popularity of Meme coins on Avalanche has cooled down. The newly launched $PUFF currently has a market value of $3.6 million and $MEOW has a market value of $2.2 million. On the other hand, the BSC Fund continues to buy Altcoin as planned, with a purchase amount of $200,000 this time. Its top three holdings are CAKE ($190,000), LISTA ($186,000) and SKYAI ($77,000).
2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 20)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN, Dexscreene)
Bitcoin: $104,658 (+11.46% YTD), daily spot volume $17.204 billion
Ethereum: $2,520.03 (-24.9% YTD), with daily spot volume of $9.922 billion
Fear of corruption index: 48 (neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.58 sat/vB ETH: 0.33 Gwei
Market share: BTC 64.1%, ETH 9.4%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: SNT, XRP, BTC, RAY, ETH
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.10206
Sector gains and losses: AI Meme fell 5.8%; DePIN fell 2.72%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 55,924 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$89.34 million, including BTC liquidation of US$10.69 million, ETH liquidation of US$18.12 million, and SOL liquidation of US$5.38 million
BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($106,791.78), lower channel line ($104,677.09)
ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($2581.84), lower channel line ($2530.72)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of June 19)
Bitcoin ETF: +$390 million (8 consecutive days of net inflows)
Ethereum ETF: +19.0998 million USD (net inflow for 3 consecutive days)
4. Today’s Outlook
Binance will delist three spot trading pairs including CATI/FDUSD on June 20
OKX will delist 8 spot trading pairs including ALCX, NULS, MDT, BORA, etc. on June 20
Lista DAO (LISTA) will unlock approximately 33.44 million tokens at 5 pm on June 20, accounting for 19.36% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$7 million;
SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 72.65 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 22, accounting for 16.88% of the current circulation and worth approximately US$12 million;
The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market capitalization today : Threshold (T) up 23.55%, Joe coin (JOE) up 15.66%, StormX (STMX) up 14.77%, Sei (SEI) up 11.52%, Mythos (MYTH) up 9.51%.
5. Hot News
Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume hits 18-month low, Runes and Ordinals craze fades
Fireblocks report: 49% of surveyed institutions worldwide have used stablecoins for payments
Binance Wallet Exclusive TGE 26th will launch League of Traders (LOT)
LGHL receives $600 million in financing from ATW Partners to launch HYPE Treasury
This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.
