Chainfeeds Briefing:
USDT is undoubtedly the leader in offshore stablecoins, while USDC is the leader in compliant stablecoins.
Article Source:
https://x.com/yuexiaoyu111/status/1935868881324982712
Article Author:
Yue Xiaoyu
Perspective:
Yue Xiaoyu: Currently, the first major force in the stablecoin market is undoubtedly Tether, which issued USDT. Tether has clearly aligned with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo, forming a powerful alliance intertwining politics and capital. This alliance includes not only Tether itself, but also its affiliated exchange Bitfinex, financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald (where Raimondo was previously CEO), CEP (led by Raimondo's son and backed by SoftBank), and Bit Deer (in which Tether holds a 25.5% stake). With the support of these closely related enterprises, Tether leads the stablecoin market by a wide margin. As of now, USDT's market cap has reached $150 billion, occupying 66.5% of the entire stablecoin market, forming an undisputed market-dominant force. Tether's advantage lies not only in its early entry but also in its massive trading depth, cross-chain compatibility, and global liquidity coverage. However, this powerful alliance is accompanied by potential compliance pressures and continuous probing of U.S. regulatory gray areas. Against the backdrop of unclear U.S. government attitudes towards stablecoins, the sustainability of the Tether model still carries certain policy risks, especially given its deep ties with specific political forces, which may face greater future regulatory uncertainty. Relative to Tether's offshore route bolstered by strong political and business resources, the second major force is led by Coinbase and Circle, following a clear compliance path. Although this alliance currently lacks significant political background support, its future core competitiveness lies in its ability to broadly expand scenario resources. Taking Meta as an example, as a non-financial internet giant, it cannot issue stablecoins itself and has begun seeking cooperation with Circle, planning to use Instagram as a pilot to promote stablecoin applications such as small rewards and creator incentives. Circle's USDC is currently the world's first compliant stablecoin, with a market cap of $61 billion, representing 28.3% of the market. Behind it are not only Coinbase's exchange support but also collaboration and endorsement from financial giants like BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard. The potential of this alliance is that once scenario landing capabilities and payment pathways are connected, USDC's growth space will be very promising, especially as U.S. regulations gradually become clearer and mainstream platforms' acceptance of compliant stablecoins increases. Although its market share is currently no match for USDT, in the long term, Coinbase-Circle's compliance strategy and high-quality ecosystem layout may be more compatible with the integration logic of traditional capital and regulatory frameworks, possessing strong growth potential. Beyond these two mainstream stablecoins, multiple secondary alliances have formed in the market, gradually competing for market share through different strategies and regional penetration. For example, USD1, backed by the Trump family, relies on Abu Dhabi Royal Sovereign Fund MGX and Binance's capital flow and platform resources to create the most politically influential alliance. USD1's initial launch chose Uniswap on Ethereum and PancakeSwap on the BNB chain, with payment pathways, issuance methods, and capital sources bearing distinct political symbols, which are both advantages and potential policy risks. Traditional payment giants Stripe and PayPal have respectively issued USDB and PYUSD, with Stripe possessing natural advantages in global payment scenarios, while PayPal, despite its massive user base, has weak operational promotion, with a market cap of only about $900 million to date. Another alliance worth noting is the U.S. domestic large bank consortium, including JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, and Wells Fargo. While their new stablecoin plan carries credibility endorsement, they face challenges in coordination efficiency and execution. From an overall market perspective, the stablecoin landscape is gradually evolving towards a "offshore-dominated + compliance-following + regional tentacles" multipolar model. Just as exchanges are divided into offshore and compliant platforms, the future of stablecoins will also present a "hundred coin war" with main dragons and local snakes coexisting, with global application scenarios becoming the new battlefield for stablecoin competition.
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