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Is it "Seeing the Top" or "Fake Fall"? With an unexpectedly high-profile official release, Labubu is experiencing a dramatic shift from being sold at dozens of times its original price to a sudden halving of its second-hand market value, with market sentiment rapidly changing from passionate pursuit to selling.
Just a week ago, Labubu was "hard to obtain", with scalpers monopolizing inventory through booking software and reselling at 10 to 30 times the original price, still finding buyers. However, a dramatic reversal occurred on June 18-19.
On the evening of June 18, Popmart's official mini-program restocked the Labubu "High Energy" series with unprecedented intensity, and for the first time opened an online pre-sale channel.
The official's "generosity" instantly ignited the second-hand market, with data showing that Labubu series prices generally plummeted by about 50%.
The market also began to question the sustainability of this IP's popularity, with some investors believing Labubu might follow the same path as Violent Bear, and Popmart's stock price dropped over 5% today due to this information!
A "Routine Restock" Turned Scalpers from Huge Profits to Losses
On June 18, Popmart's "routine restock" triggered an earthquake in the second-hand market.
Data shows that this restock caused a price avalanche: according to a trendy toy second-hand trading platform, Labubu series prices generally plummeted by about 50%. Previously priced at 1,500 to 2,800 yuan for a box (6 blind boxes), the recovery price dramatically dropped to the 650-800 yuan range. Even the rare hidden edition "Self" dropped from its high of 4,600 yuan to around 2,800 yuan, a decline of over 38%.
On social platforms, consumers who previously struggled to purchase now proudly shared screenshots of successful orders, with some saying they felt this restock's quantity and frequency far exceeded previous attempts, and the official truly wanted fans to be able to buy them.
In previously bustling scalper groups, the atmosphere plummeted to freezing point. Pre-sale orders at 1,200 yuan went untouched, replaced by low-price calls of "will buy at 700 yuan".
Some scalpers lost tens of thousands of yuan in a single day due to the price drop, a dramatic reversal that made netizens gleeful: seeing scalpers lose money was more satisfying than earning money themselves.
This "ugly-cute" spirit that once drove global top stars like Rihanna and Beckham to madness is experiencing its first price collapse - and this might just be the beginning of a challenge to Popmart's 350 billion Hong Kong dollar market value myth.
Market Debate: "Peaked" or "Fake Fall"?
Labubu's challenges come not just from price fluctuations, but from fundamental doubts about the IP's sustained popularity. Investors began comparing it with historically phenomenal IPs, searching for signs of decline.
Previous reports indicated that from internet popularity data, these concerns were not unfounded. Violent Bear maintained its popularity for 2 years from 2020 to 2022; last year's hit "Black Myth: Wukong" maintained popularity for less than 3 months; Nezha similarly maintained its peak for only about 3 months during the Spring Festival.
Some analysts claimed that four young people's asset speculation peaks share four common signals: first, media and search heat peaks first; second, producers release large quantities at high prices; third, a widening price gap between high-end and mid-range; fourth, liquidity stagnation. LABUBU is highly likely to repeat the paths of AJ and Violent Bear in the next 6-12 months, with a price correction of ≥50% after emotional overvaluation, with an objective probability of about 95% (±10 percentage points).
Supporters, however, offered a different reference point, comparing Popmart with another company relying on core fans and IP ecosystem - Nintendo.
Analysis compared Popmart with gaming giant Nintendo: Nintendo has 106 million annual active users, a market value of about 850 billion yuan, revenue of 78 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 61 times; while Popmart has 46.08 million registered members, a member repurchase rate of 49.4%, an expected 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 56 times, and expected profit growth of over 100%.
The analysis believes that Labubu, like games, doesn't need "universal love". Its commercial foundation lies in a massive fan base with extremely high loyalty and repurchase rates. Popmart's nearly 50% member repurchase rate is the "moat" of its business model.
From this perspective, Popmart's valuation doesn't seem outrageous. The key is whether Labubu can become a cross-generational classic IP like Super Mario, rather than a fleeting internet sensation.
