This week's review

This week, from June 9 to June 16, the highest price of BTC was around $110,530 and the lowest price was close to $102,664, with a fluctuation range of about 7.12%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 103,876, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• analyze:

1. 60000-68000, about 1.2 million pieces;
2. 76000-89000, about 1.24 million pieces;
3. 90,000-100,000, about 1.4 million pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 95,000~100,000 in the short term is 80%;

Important news

Economic News

Market opening performance:

• U.S. stock indexes opened on Monday, with the Nasdaq index rising 1.6% and the S&P 500 index rising 1.06%.
• Gold fell 1%, Brent crude fell 2%, and the US dollar index fell 0.17%.

Federal Reserve (FOMC) dynamics and interest rate cut expectations:

• This Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations.
• As the recently released CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data were weaker than expected, the market has brought forward its expectations for the next interest rate cut and believes that the probability of a rate cut in September is relatively high.
• Market focus is on whether the Federal Reserve will send a clear signal on the timing of future interest rate cuts.
• Citi analysts noted that the current market may be underestimating the possibility of a rate cut.
• Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is likely to emphasize the uncertainty in the outlook for economic growth and inflation, and the tone may be that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, but will be prepared to respond if the economy needs it.

• The market generally expects Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to maintain a neutral stance.

Geopolitical and market impact:

• Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, one of the market's focuses is the conflict between Israel and Iran.
• Continued tensions in the Middle East and concerns about geopolitical conflict weighed on risk assets.

Institutional forecast:

• Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast that gold prices will reach $3,700/oz by the end of 2025 and $4,000/oz by mid-2026. Crypto Ecosystem News

Progress of stablecoin regulation in Hong Kong:

• Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said that as the digital asset market develops, the demand for stablecoins will increase.
•The Stablecoin Ordinance has been passed by the Legislative Council and will take effect on August 1.
• After the regulations come into effect, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will process the license applications received as soon as possible, aiming to attract global institutions to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong based on actual application scenarios to enhance market liquidity and competitiveness.
• Last year, the total transaction volume of digital assets and related products of local banks in Hong Kong reached HK$17.2 billion, and the total amount of digital assets held in custody by banks reached HK$5.1 billion at the end of the year.

Cryptocurrency Market Performance and Analysis:

• Circle (USDC issuer) rose 20% during the session, with its market value rising to $35 billion.
• BTC rose 2.2%, and ETH rose 3.6%.
• QCP Analysis: Despite the tense situation in the Middle East, BTC did not experience a panic drop, showing that the market's resilience has improved, and continued institutional holdings have become a key support.
• 10x Research Analysis: Against the backdrop of rising oil prices, firm US Treasury yields, divergent data, and the Fed’s cautious stance, BTC’s macro fundamentals are quietly strengthening. The longer the consolidation period, the greater the possibility of a future breakthrough.
• Summer seasonal factors may cause BTC to continue to consolidate in the short term, but the mid- to long-term macro signals are turning, laying the foundation for potential increases within the year.
• BTC cycle performance: The performance of this cycle is similar to the past, with an increase of 1076% from 2015 to 2018, an increase of 1007% from 2018 to 2022, and an increase of 656% from 2022 to date.

ETF fund flows:

• Last week, the total inflow of US BTC spot ETFs was US$1.37 billion, of which BlackRock’s IBIT received US$1.1159 billion.
• Last week, US ETH spot ETFs received inflows of $528.2 million.
• Spot BTC ETFs have recorded net inflows for the seventh consecutive week.
• CoinShares data: Digital assets have achieved net inflows for the ninth consecutive week, with an inflow of US$1.9 billion last week. The total inflow for this round reached US$12.9 billion, and the total inflow from the beginning of the year to date hit a new high of US$13.2 billion.
• Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that the holdings of Blake’s BTC spot ETF have exceeded US$70 billion, becoming the fastest ETF to reach this milestone in just 341 days.

Enterprise holdings and on-chain data:

• SharpLink Gaming, a US-listed company, spent US$463 million to increase its holdings by 176,271 ETH, becoming the listed company with the largest ETH holdings.
• Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, increased its holdings by 1,112 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 10,000 BTC.

• Santiment data: There are currently 6,392 addresses holding 1,000 to 100,000 ETH. In the past 30 days, these addresses have increased their holdings by a total of 1.49 million ETH, an increase of 3.72%.

Market Forecast and Future Catalysts:

• Cointelegraph reported: The market consensus is not bearish, the bull market is not over, and the market believes that BTC is preparing to enter a new round of price discovery. The price is expected to reach $170,000, and $113,000 is the only obstacle.
• Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets at VanEck, said: Low-market-cap public companies claiming to build large-scale crypto reserves can be seen as a scam and are likely just intended to boost the company's stock price.
• Potential Catalysts: A possible Fed rate cut at the end of summer and the US GENIUS Stablecoin Act could serve as catalysts for a reversal in sentiment.

US regulatory developments:

• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced four senior appointments, including two with experience in digital assets, which was interpreted as a signal that SEC Director Paul Atkins is more friendly toward the crypto industry.

Stablecoin market data:

• The total market value of stablecoins increased by 0.63% in the past 7 days to US$251.542 billion.

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• Non-liquid long-term whale
• Total spot selling pressure • ETF reserve status • Long-term investors for more than half a year • Large net transfers on trading platforms • Short-term speculator cost line

Part 1: Analysis of core chain data one by one

The most long-term visionary and financially powerful players in these markets are in a sustained and steeply sloped accumulation cycle. This is not a short-term behavior, but a long-term, strategic asset allocation. It shows that the most influential capital is taking advantage of the current stage to systematically increase its core holdings.

The overall willingness to sell in the current market is at a recent low. This means that no matter how the price fluctuates, the holder group - whether profitable or loss-making - has shown a considerable "reluctant to sell" mentality. The power to rush to sell is weak, which provides a solid underlying environment for the market.

The capital flow of ETFs has transitioned from the early "explosive" inflow to a more mature and stable "allocation-based" net inflow stage. Although the daily inflow amount has decreased, the key is that the capital flow has not reversed and the overall net inflow or balance is still maintained. This represents a continuous background purchasing power from the mainstream financial world.

This is the most macro and structural indicator. More than 53.5% of the supply has been locked by long-term holders, and this number is still rising rapidly. This fundamentally changes the supply structure of the market. A large number of tokens have withdrawn from the short-term circulation market and entered the "quasi-inventory" state, causing the effective supply available for trading to continue to decrease.

Recently, it has been shown that large transfers are mainly net outflows. This is a clear signal that large investors tend to withdraw assets from trading platforms and move them into private wallets after purchase. The motivation for this behavior is long-term storage rather than short-term trading, which directly leads to a reduction in the spot inventory available for sale on the trading platform.

1. The cost line at $98,245 is the psychological profit and loss dividing line for active funds in the market recently. It is the "Martino Line" of short-term market sentiment. If the price moves above it, the market is relatively safe; if it is broken, it may trigger short-term traders to stop loss.

Part 2: Deep Integration Analysis

On the surface of the market, there is a confrontation between macro uncertainty and strong micro data. Traders are closely watching the Fed's movements, as if the fate of the market is hanging by a thread. The narrow fluctuations in prices have exacerbated the tense atmosphere "before the storm." However, if you take a step back, you will find a profound contradiction: if the macro cold is so pressing, why do the various "physiological indicators" within the market appear so healthy and strong? Long-term holders are increasing, whale are accumulating, and selling pressure is decreasing.

This shows that some profound changes are taking place in the inner body of the market, making it more resistant to external "weather". The real story may not be about the weather, but about the body itself. In order to understand this internal change, we can borrow the metaphor of "geological plates" and integrate all the data into it this time. The "geological composition" of the continent of the crypto asset market is undergoing fundamental changes. The core driving force of this "geological movement" comes from the continued increase in "long-term investors", who are the chief engineers. More than half of the territory has changed from soft, easily eroded "quicksand" to hard "bedrock". The details of this engineering can be clearly seen:

• “Illiquid long-term whale” and “ETFs” are the two main construction teams. The former is like the tectonic force within the plate, squeezing and solidifying the land from the inside; the latter is like external reclamation projects, constantly bringing new and stable materials to this continent.
•“Large Net Outflows from Trading Platforms” is a construction log that records the process of “bedrock” materials (tokens) being scooped up from the flowing “market ocean” and firmly fixed to the continental plates.

• As a result of this geological movement, the stability of the continent has been greatly enhanced. The reduction in "total spot selling pressure" is like the weather station report, showing that even if there is a storm (macro negative), it is difficult to stir up dust like in the past, because most of the sand has turned into rock.

And over this increasingly solid bedrock continent is a thin, fluid surface. The “average elevation” of this surface is the cost line for “short-term speculators”: $98,245. The macro “tides”—the Fed’s monetary policy—operate primarily on this surface, washing out daily price fluctuations. From here, the full picture becomes clear. The surface tension in the market is a normal phenomenon caused by the macro tides washing over an increasingly solid and expanding continent. People get nervous because they focus too much on the ebb and flow of the tides and ignore the deeper and more lasting uplift of the continent itself. This is not a fragile tug of war, but an interaction between cyclical natural phenomena (macro cycles) and structural geological evolution (ownership shifts).

The market’s reaction pattern has therefore changed: it has become more resistant to the erosion of negative tides (macro negatives) because most of the land is already bedrock; while for positive tides (macro positives), it may produce higher and faster waves due to the narrowing of the river channel (liquidity).

Part III: Outlook

Short-term outlook:

In the short term, the focus remains on the "tide". The Fed's decision is the biggest variable and will directly determine the height of the tide, thereby triggering price fluctuations. The "shoreline" of $98,245 will be a key observation point, and the market will repeatedly test this level. Any macro headwinds may cause prices to temporarily fall below this line, but this should be seen as an opportunity to observe the strength of "bedrock" support.

Mid- to long-term outlook:

The core of the medium and long term is the "geological movement" itself. We need to continuously measure the speed of bedrock thickening - that is, the proportion of long-term investors, the sustainability of ETF inflows, and the dynamics of whale accumulation. As long as this movement continues, the continental map is expanding and the value foundation of the market is deepening. When the next macro-trend "tide" comes, it will lift up a value entity that is far larger and more stable than in the past.

Mid-term exploration

• Liquidity Supply

• Whale purchasing power comprehensive score • BTC trading platform trend net position
• Incremental model • Global purchasing power

• Total chip distribution structure on the chain

The supply of new liquidity in the current market has declined, and the market may still tend to be in a structure of stock shock game. If this state continues, the market may continue to slide under the current structure, and the overall direction still needs time to wait. From another perspective, market participants may also be playing games while waiting and repeatedly considering.

The whale still have a strong liquidity supply, and the large participants in the market are still actively participating in the game. Due to the decline in new liquidity supply, the whale in the market are currently inclined to the stock state. The stock whale are also the main reason why BTC maintains a high-level shock state.

BTC is still accumulating on the trading platform. At the current stage, it is still in a weak accumulation state, and a small amount of BTC is flowing out of the trading platform.

The supply of short-term participants continues to decline. The market started to rise in April 2025, and it is still rising in the stock state. As mentioned in the previous weekly report, due to the continuous purchase of on-site stock purchasing power and the increase in short liquidation, the current market has reached a high level. If the incremental state continues to be the current state, the possibility of a major outbreak in the market may continue to decline in the near future. The market still needs time to play the game, and it may be waiting for a change in the market.

Global purchasing power is currently declining. It is possible that as purchasing power gradually shrinks, the market is slowly returning to rationality and calmness.

From the perspective of the structure of chip transactions, the current oscillation structure support is around 102000. At the same time, due to the small number of chips traded around 110500, the energy of price increase may become weaker and weaker when it crosses the 110500 price level if the incremental supply is not continuous.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor • Option intention transaction ratio

• Derivatives trading volume

• Option implied volatility • Profit and loss transfer volume • New addresses and active addresses • Net position of BTC trading platform
• Net position of ETH trading platform
• High-weight selling pressure • Global purchasing power status • Stablecoin trading platform net position

Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the red area, and the derivatives risk is relatively high.

The derivatives risk factor has once again entered the red zone. Judging from derivatives alone, the market is more likely to remain volatile this week, and even if there is a short squeeze, the magnitude will be much smaller.

Put option ratio and trading volume increased and are currently at high levels.

Derivatives trading volumes were low.

Option implied volatility fluctuates only slightly in the short term.
Emotional state rating: Neutral

Consistent with last week, the overall market sentiment remains relatively neutral and cautious.

The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium-low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a state of continuous large outflow, and ETH has a small outflow.

Currently, BTC continues to flow out in large quantities.

As the price of ETH rebounded, there was a small inflow of net positions in the ETH trading platform. It has been digested and turned into a small outflow.

There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power declined slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power remained the same compared to last week.

Global purchasing power declined slightly but remained positive.

Stablecoin purchasing power remained flat compared to last week.

This week’s summary:

Summary of the news:

The most direct observation of the current market is that it is in a state of holding its breath. Everyone's eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve in the early hours of Thursday, waiting for a signal about the future direction of interest rates. The short-term fluctuations in gold, crude oil, stocks and even crypto assets seem to have become an early bet or risk hedging on this signal. This is a simple and clear fact, and it is also the starting point of the discussion.

Of course, an important question arises. The decisive factor of the market is only macro-monetary policy. Then, under the relatively clear tightening expectations and geopolitical tensions in the past period of time, why did digital assets represented by Bitcoin not experience a collapse? The data we see, on the contrary, shows a resilience that is completely different from previous cycles. This shows that the most direct answer may not be complete. There must be some force that is counteracting the macro pressure. This means that we need to look away from the surface and explore the changes in the internal structure of the market.

To understand this new force, we can use a metaphor: imagine the entire digital asset market as a huge reservoir, whose water level is the price of the asset. In the past, the water source of this reservoir mainly depended on natural rainfall, that is, retail investors' funds and market sentiment. When the weather is good (optimistic market sentiment, macro-easing), there is abundant rainfall, and the water level rises; when the weather is bad (market panic, macro-tightening), there is less rainfall or even drought, and the water level drops. Therefore, the water level of the reservoir is extremely sensitive to "weather".

But now, the situation has changed fundamentally. Next to the reservoir, people have built a huge, solid and continuous water diversion channel. This water diversion channel is the spot ETF channel represented by institutions such as Bridgewater. It is not affected by short-term weather changes and steadily injects clean water into the reservoir every day according to the established engineering design. The "seven consecutive weeks of net inflows" and "the total inflow amount from the beginning of the year to date has reached a new high" mentioned in the news are direct evidence that this water diversion channel is operating efficiently. At the same time, the exchange of part of the balance sheet of listed companies for Bitcoin, or the continuous increase in holdings by the big players on the chain, can be seen as a few more deep wells in addition to the water diversion channel that are constantly replenishing water. Now, let's look at the water level of the reservoir. External “weather” (Fed’s interest rate decisions, geopolitical conflicts) remains important, as it determines the “evaporation” of the reservoir.

A hawkish signal, like a dry, hot wind, will accelerate evaporation and put downward pressure on the water level. A dovish signal, like a timely rainstorm, will help the water level rise faster. Of course, the decisive factors have changed. As long as the net injection of the "water diversion channel" is greater than the "evaporation" caused by the deterioration of the "weather" in the long run, the water level of this reservoir must have an upward trend in the long run.

This is the source of market resilience: a sustained, structural, non-emotional buying force (the water diversion channel) is offsetting and absorbing a volatile, cyclical, emotional macro pressure (the weather). So now we can return to the original observation. People are keeping a close eye on the Fed, just as farmers are concerned about weather forecasts, which is understandable because it directly affects short-term harvests. But what really changed the hydrological ecology of the entire region was not a certain rain, but the water diversion channel that had been built and completely changed the water supply structure.

Here we can draw a conclusion: the market is indeed looking at the Fed's "face" in the short term, but this is just an appearance. The long-term value and stability of the market have become more dependent on its internal "structural water supply system" - that is, the institutionalized and compliant capital inflow channel.

Therefore, the key to preparing for the subsequent process is to switch the analytical perspective: from focusing too much on the short-term and fluctuating "weather forecast" to continuously measuring the flow and health of the "water diversion channel". Because as long as the water flow in the water diversion channel continues, the water level in the reservoir will eventually be full, even if it drops due to temporary drought, and eventually overflow and flow to higher places.

Short-term outlook: Focus on monetary policy and manage volatility.

The core of this stage is the uncertainty of the external macro-environment, which, like "weather", directly affects the market's short-term sentiment and price fluctuations.

Core Focus:

Federal Reserve monetary policy: interest rate decisions, economic forecast summary, and the tone of Chairman Powell's speech are the absolute focus of the market. Any hawkish or dovish signals will be quickly amplified.
Key economic data: Inflation data such as CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) will directly affect the market's expectations of the Fed's future actions.

Market performance:

• High volatility, range consolidation. Before there is a clear macro-positive or negative news, the market will most likely remain in a larger range to engage in a "tug of war", that is, the confrontation between structural buying and macro selling pressure.

Long-term outlook: Measuring the “flow” and understanding the trend

The core of this stage is the structural changes within the market, which acts like a "water channel", providing continuous and stable value support for the market and determining the long-term trend of the market.

Core Focus:

• How structured funds flow in and how the regulatory framework evolves.
• The clarification of regulatory policies in major markets such as the United States and Hong Kong is an institutional guarantee for attracting more mainstream funds to enter the market.

Performance:

• The value bottom line may rise: Although there will be short-term fluctuations, in the long run, due to the continued net buying, the market's value center and price bottom will steadily rise.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The core narrative of the market is a profound and lasting shift in its ownership structure.

2. It is transitioning from a speculative market dominated by short-term liquidity to an allocation market dominated by long-term value storage.
3. The on-chain data fully confirms this process;

4. The supply side is being locked and solidified on an unprecedented scale, while new structural forces from the mainstream world are emerging on the demand side.

• Market setting tone:

The current market is in the "consolidation and digestion period" of the "structural bull market". Its surface calmness or volatility cannot cover up the continuous strengthening of the internal structure. This is a stage that requires patience and shifting the focus of analysis from short-term price forecasts to measuring long-term structural changes.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. The decline in new liquidity has caused the market to tend to fluctuate in the stock market, and it is possible that participants are playing the game of waiting and watching.
2. The liquidity supply of whale is strong, and the stock status supports BTC's high-level fluctuations.
3. BTC is weakly accumulated on the trading platform, and currently a small amount is flowing out of the trading platform.
4. The supply of short-term participants has declined, and the stock structure is significant.
5. Global purchasing power declines, and the market gradually returns to rationality and calmness.
6. The chip structure shows that the upward energy above the support level of 102000 and 110500 is weakening.

• Market setting tone:

Stock game, high-level shock

The current market is dominated by stock-based games, and we may have to wait for a turning point amid high-level fluctuations.

On-chain short-term observations:

1. The risk factor is in the red area, and the risk of derivatives is relatively high.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level.
3. Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
4. The net position of BTC on the trading platform is in a state of continuous large outflow, and ETH has a small outflow.
5. Global purchasing power declined slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power remained the same compared to last week.

6. The probability of not falling below 95,000-100,000 in the short term is 80%;

• Market setting tone:

In the short term, the overall market sentiment is relatively neutral and cautious, with no signs of enthusiasm or panic. If there is no special breaking news, the expectations for this week are still the same as last week. The market is affected by derivatives and tends to fluctuate. The probability of a direct large retracement and a large-scale short squeeze is low.

Risk Warning: The above are market discussions and explorations and do not have any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

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