A long-standing investor in startup investments, Ark Invest has issued a valuation report for SpaceX, predicting that the company's enterprise value will reach $2.5 trillion by 2030, approximately 7 times higher than the last funding round in December 2024. This prediction is based on a Monte Carlo model with 17 variables, including Mars colonization potential, with bear and bull market valuations of around $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion, respectively.
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ToggleSpaceX Gradually Moving Towards Mars Development through Satellite Network
SpaceX starts with cash, manufactures rockets and satellites, creates orbital bandwidth, acquires Starlink customers, and reinvests the earned cash. This cycle continues until the global satellite network plan (Starlink Constellation) is ultimately completed.
Starlink Constellation is a global satellite network project led by SpaceX, aiming to provide high-speed, low-latency internet services worldwide through tens of thousands of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, especially in remote areas or places difficult to cover with traditional networks. It will ultimately form a group of collaboratively operating satellites, hence the name Starlink Constellation.
Once the Starlink Constellation is formed, funds will gradually flow towards Mars development, with each rocket eventually carrying humanoid robots Optimus and related materials, progressively moving towards the dream of Mars migration.
Satellite Network Will Generate $300 Billion in Annual Revenue Once Completed
Ark estimates that SpaceX can complete the full deployment of Starlink Constellation by 2035, generating approximately $300 billion in annual revenue, accounting for 15% of global communication expenditure.
As the reusability of interstellar spacecraft increases, the satellite's share in total marginal costs will increase from about 30% to about 90% over time.
Ark expects that the number of Optimus robots adapted to Mars will grow to millions over time, building infrastructure to support a permanent colony, with productivity increasing over time. However, in the early stages, the Mars plan is unlikely to make a significant contribution to SpaceX's book value.
By 2030, Ark's enterprise value target for SpaceX is around $2.5 trillion, approximately 7 times higher than the last funding round in December 2024. The bear and bull market valuations are around $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion, respectively.
Compared to Ark's calculations, Musk claimed on X in early June that SpaceX's estimated revenue for 2025 is $15.5 billion. One could say that Ark, known for its bold predictions, is still not holding back!
How Should Investors Invest in SpaceX?
According to a previous report, SpaceX and its investors completed an internal stock sale of $1.25 billion last year, valuing Musk's rocket and satellite manufacturer at $35 billion. Since SpaceX is privately held and not publicly traded, investors can only indirectly hold shares through SpaceX funds such as Baron Focused Growth Fund (BFGFX), Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ), or Ark's ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX).
Among these, DXYZ has 52% SpaceX holdings and rose 215% in the past year, but its stock performance has been poor this year, possibly due to Musk's recent political controversies.
(Musk Hints at IPO for His Companies? Bloomberg Teaches You How to Buy SpaceX)
Most investors unable to buy SpaceX shares can only angrily buy Tesla (TSLA), Musk's only publicly listed company! However, the two are independently operated companies with no cross-shareholding.
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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed on 6/17 during a YouTube show 《Uncapped》 hosted by his brother Jack Altman that Meta spent over $100 million to poach OpenAI engineers. However, he emphasized that none of their core talents have left. Almost simultaneously, OpenAI successfully signed a $200 million pilot contract with the US Department of Defense, entering the defense AI market, with the competition between the two tech giants intensifying.
ToggleMeta Offers High Salaries to Poach OpenAI Employees to Build AI "Superhuman" Team
Altman said Meta's poaching efforts are simply crazy, revealing they offered $100 million to poach their own engineers, with potential annual salary packages even higher. He added that Meta has offered very attractive conditions to multiple OpenAI employees, but so far, the core and top talents have not left.
Meta CEO Marc Zuckerberg, in order to build an AI superhuman team, has personally recruited and recently invested $14.3 billion in AI enterprise Scale AI, successfully poaching the company's CEO Alexandr Wang into his own AI superhuman team.
According to reports, Meta has successfully poached talents from multiple well-known tech companies, including Jack Rae, the chief researcher from Google DeepMind, with recruitment efforts spanning the entire tech industry.
Altman Subtly Mocks Meta: True Innovation Is Not About Throwing Money
Regarding Meta's recruitment efforts, Altman said he respects that Meta sees OpenAI as its biggest competitor. However, he pointed out that although Meta is actively investing and willing to try, he believes the company still lacks true innovative capabilities.
Altman also shared his thoughts on why these people rejected Meta's high-salary poaching:
"If work becomes only about money, and not driven by passion or mission, creating such a corporate culture carries high risks. I believe we understand many things that Meta does not yet understand."
OpenAI Secures $200 Million AI Contract from US Department of Defense
In less than a day, OpenAI announced a one-year, $200 million pilot contract with the US Department of Defense to help the military test AI technology and apply it to administrative and security operations, which is the first major project of the newly established "OpenAI for Government" department.
The official statement said that the department has integrated previously scattered government collaboration projects, including ChatGPT Gov, and projects with NASA, NIH, Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), and the Treasury Department.
The focus of this collaboration is to simplify military medical administrative processes, prevent cyber attacks, and improve operational efficiency. OpenAI has previously collaborated with defense technology company Anduril to develop an AI anti-drone system and recruited former national security officials to its policy team and board, actively expanding its influence in defense and government AI fields, while emphasizing adherence to democratic values and protecting public interests.
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Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and prices may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all of your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
