From collateral to US stock trading: USDC enters traditional finance, will the stablecoin narrative lead Bitcoin to decline?

Stablecoins are a crucial product in the crypto realm and an extension of US dollar hegemony. With USDC potentially becoming a futures market collateral and even a trading medium for US stocks, stablecoins have leaped from infrastructure to a bridge for global capital flow. As Trump strongly promotes USD1 and the Stablecoin Act, is the United States recreating a crypto version of the Bretton Woods system?

USDC Entering Traditional Finance: Will Become US Futures Collateral

The Choice Between Alpha and Beta, the Crypto Spirit Gradually Fading

Yuyue finally emphasized that when the crypto community always focuses on alpha such as meme coins or DeFi arbitrage, they might miss opportunities like CRCL and USDC that can support an entire financial narrative (beta). Stablecoin legislation, USDC's leading position, WLFI, and USD1 will all influence mainstream capital direction and future market narratives.

While the crypto community celebrates the passage of multiple crypto bills, this seemingly expanded adoption might actually make the crypto market more dependent on the traditional financial system.

After Circle, the US stablecoin giant, officially went public on 6/5, its stock price has been rising, once exceeding $200. CRCL continues to surge, with Ark Invest gaining $700 million, making it the largest winner on the surface. However, hidden beneath, Circle's long-term partner Coinbase actually held CRCL shares through stock exchange early on. Would missing Circle's rally and buying COIN be a good alternative?

CRCL Continues to Surge, Ark Invest Gains $700 Million as the Largest Winner

Ark Invest's three funds sold Circle stocks for two consecutive days, cashing out nearly $100 million, becoming the largest winner on the surface.

Ark initially bought 4,363,244 CRCL shares, which was 10% of the initial IPO issuance of 34 million shares. Calculated at the IPO issue price of $31, Ark's initial cost was only $135 million.

As CRCL continued to surge, Ark sold 342,658 shares on 6/16 and another 300,108 shares on 6/17. As of 6/18, Ark still holds 3,720,478 CRCL shares, valued at approximately $740 million. The author speculates that Ark had to sell some shares due to reaching the maximum holding proportion, lowering CRCL's holding ratio in each fund to around 6%.

The current CRCL surge has brought Ark a total of $700 million in gains, and it seems Cathie Wood can finally vent her frustration from recent years!

• Realized Gains: Approximately $76.57 million (estimated using the closing price on the day of sale and the IPO cost of $31)
• Unrealized Gains: $627 million

CRCL Continues to Surge, Can Buying COIN Be an Alternative?

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes recently pointed out that the valuation of the US stablecoin concept stock Circle is too high after the IPO. However, he also warned against shorting CRCL and suggested buying Coinbase stock instead, as Circle and Coinbase have an agreement where Circle gives Coinbase 50% of interest income in exchange for adoption.

(CRCL IPO in US Stocks Rises 4 Times! Arthur Hayes Warns of High Valuation, Suggests Buying This Target)

According to the author's calculation, Coinbase might hold 3.5% of Circle's shares. This hot IPO may have brought Coinbase nearly $1.5 billion in income, with an investment return of up to 30 times. Moreover, Coinbase receives nearly half of Circle's reserve revenue annually, making it an excellent investment!

(Circle Goes Public, Coinbase Profits Greatly, Receiving Annual Reserve Revenue, Potential 5x Stock Return)

COIN's stock price has only risen 16% in the past month, far from CRCL's surge. However, this figure is merely the author's speculation based on Coinbase's recent financial reports, and the author looks forward to seeing more supporting data in the next financial report.