Guest: Arthur Hayes
Host: Bonnie & David Lin
Podcast Source: Bonnie Blockchain
Original Title: Dialogue with Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to Hit $250,000 by Year-End, Most Altcoins Unlikely to Recover
Broadcast Date: June 16, 2025
Organized & Translated by: TechFlow
Key Point Summary
Bitcoin price could reach $250,000 by the end of this year.
Retail investors still show great interest in Bitcoin due to its outstanding performance and being the most easily understood crypto asset.
Most Altcoins may not rise this year due to lack of "product-market fit" and typically having no revenue to return to token holders.
Compared to stocks or gold, Bitcoin's scarcity and decentralized nature give it unique advantages in countering currency devaluation and liquidity flooding.
When selecting Altcoins, focus mainly on the "narrative" behind a project.
Remain rational when buying Altcoins and avoid blind following.
US-China relations will gradually drift apart but not as quickly as some predict.
Most traders don't truly care about complete decentralization, prioritizing liquidity and diverse trading products.
Exchange products lack innovation and fees are similar, so marketing becomes the core competitive factor.
Intergenerational conflicts may arise, with governments likely choosing to print massive amounts of money as the simplest solution.
So before Bitcoin reaches this goal, is it possible for other crypto assets to perform better?
How to Choose Altcoins?
Arthur Hayes: From the current perspective, this is not obvious. I believe Bitcoin's market dominance largely depends on Ethereum's performance. If Ethereum's price and market activity do not change significantly, it will be difficult for Bitcoin's dominance ratio to fluctuate greatly. Currently, Ethereum's popularity has declined, and many investors' interest has reduced. So, if the market cycle changes, I am more inclined to bet on Bitcoin rather than other assets.
Bonnie: How do you personally select Altcoins? What aspects do you usually focus on?
Arthur Hayes: I mainly focus on the "Narrative", which is the story behind a project and its logic for attracting investors. Currently, the market's focus is more on whether it can generate stable cash flow. If a project can bring substantial cash flow, that is very important to me. Additionally, I also look at whether investors can obtain actual returns by holding the project's tokens.
Bonnie: What about valuation? Do you pay special attention to it?
Arthur Hayes: For projects in the early stages, we usually set a very clear investment cap to ensure we do not pay too high a price. But for projects with better liquidity, I am more concerned about whether they can generate stable cash flow.
Bonnie: Don't you think the "Narrative" changes too quickly? It feels hard to keep up with the pace.
Arthur Hayes: Indeed, but if you buy at the right price, it's not a problem. If you can enter when the price is low enough, you are likely to profit once the project launches. However, if you buy at high prices while chasing market trends, trying to participate in every hot project, the result is often a loss. The key is to remain rational and avoid blindly following the crowd.
Arthur Hayes:
Yes. I think they might start by canceling the "pre-tax exemption". According to current policy, foreign investors do not need to pay 30% tax on U.S. bonds like local investors. If this policy is canceled, it may reduce the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds to foreign investors, causing them to shift funds to other investment channels. I believe this trend may gradually become apparent.
Bonnie:
Does this mean the market will crash?
Arthur Hayes:
No. Even if foreign investors withdraw, the U.S. government will fill the funding gap by printing money, thereby avoiding major market turbulence.
David:
In fact, we saw a similar situation in early April this year - bond and stock prices both fell, Bitcoin's yield declined, while bond yields rose. So I want to ask, if the U.S. really implements capital controls, will it trigger a similar market reaction, causing asset prices to drop and reducing liquidity in the U.S. financial system?
Arthur Hayes:
I believe capital controls will be implemented gradually, so they won't cause violent market fluctuations. The government realizes that sudden policy adjustments might bring unintended consequences, such as severe bond market volatility or even losing control of the situation. If capital controls are implemented gradually, they will fill the funding gap through other means, such as having the Federal Reserve, Treasury, banking system, or certain private institutions allowed to create low-cost credit, replacing foreign investors forced to sell assets.
[The translation continues in the same manner for the entire text, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms.]I don't think this is worth paying attention to. Many investors simply buy index funds, holding ETFs that contain multiple assets that may not align with their personal preferences. But they don't care; they just want to participate in the market.
David:
Regarding the development of exchanges, as centralized exchanges gradually become mainstream, do you think they will attract deposits from ordinary users and traditional financial institutions like JP Morgan and Bank of America?
Arthur Hayes:
I don't think so, because these banks have more powerful distribution networks than crypto companies.
David:
So, in the foreseeable future, there won't be direct competition between the two sides?
Arthur Hayes:
Actually, there is direct competition, right? If JP Morgan allows users to buy Bitcoin, and Coinbase offers a similar service, ultimately users are buying the same Bitcoin. The core of competition then comes down to transaction fees. If JP Morgan can provide zero-fee transactions because they can profit from other banking services, while Coinbase still relies on its high-profit brokerage business, how will Coinbase respond?
David:
If you were to create another BitMEX today, how would you prepare to handle crypto market traffic?
Arthur Hayes:
I would focus on attracting more "Degens". I wouldn't try to compete in Bitcoin trading because that would be a loss-making project.
I would focus on meme coins and new project launch platforms. I think more revenue can be created by optimizing the new token issuance process, rather than competing in the Bitcoin-USD trading market, which is a low-profit, high-competition area.
The Squid Game of the Eastern World
Bonnie:
You've spent a lot of time in Asia. I'm curious what you've learned about money and investment that is drastically different from the US?
Arthur Hayes:
I think Asians generally have lower trust in government, so they are more cautious and skeptical when facing investments and wealth management. Their savings habits are also very different, such as gold playing an important role in Asian families, and real estate investment being very common. These differences in mindset shape their unique investment approach.
Bonnie:
So are their investment styles more inclined towards risk-taking or more conservative? Why is the crypto trading volume in Korea so large?
Arthur Hayes:
This is related to several factors. First, Korea has a very high internet penetration rate, making online trading platforms easily accessible. Second, Korea has a very developed gaming culture, which makes it easier for young people to accept digital assets and virtual economy concepts. Additionally, Korean society has a relatively homogeneous structure with intense competition. Although Koreans are generally highly educated, high-paying positions are relatively limited, and many people find it difficult to achieve financial freedom through traditional careers. Therefore, many choose to seek breakthroughs by trading stocks or cryptocurrencies. This strong competitive consciousness drives trading volume growth.
Investment Views of the New Generation
Bonnie:
The older generation owns a lot of wealth and wants to fund their retirement by selling assets to the younger generation. But the problem is that the younger generation is not enthusiastic about buying and accumulating these assets, but rather willing to pay for various experiences. How do you think this phenomenon will develop?
Arthur Hayes:
I think it will be very interesting to observe the regulatory developments of cryptocurrencies or other digital assets in the future. Currently, the Baby Boomer generation (born between 1946-1964) holds a large number of stocks, real estate, and other assets. But the question is, will anyone really want to buy these assets? Perhaps some young people will be interested in suburban houses or have demand for city apartments, but overall, I'm uncertain. So if the older generation needs to sell these assets to fund their retirement, and the younger generation is unwilling to take them over, this will become a big problem. Worse, if asset prices drop, the older generation's wealth will shrink, and they may not be able to afford retirement. At that point, the government might choose to fill the pension gap by increasing taxes and shifting the burden to the younger generation. But will young people accept such an arrangement? That remains unknown.
Bonnie:
So what do you think might happen?
Arthur Hayes:
I think there might be a lot of conflicts between generations. Although I can't predict the final outcome, I feel the government will likely choose to print a lot of money to address this issue. After all, for the government, this is the simplest and most direct solution.
Arthur's Fund Allocation
David:
What are the current priority asset allocations for Maelstrom?
Arthur Hayes:
In our investment portfolio, most funds are invested in Bitcoin, and we also have a significant layout on Ethereum. Additionally, we participate in some project-related investments, including advisory roles and direct investments. For some low-liquidity but promising projects like Ethereum and Pendle, these are currently our key holdings.
David:
How often do you adjust your Bitcoin position?
Arthur Hayes:
We don't trade very frequently overall. We might only have one or two major buy or sell transactions per year because we don't want to operate too frequently.
Our goal is to outperform Bitcoin's returns. If we find a new project that can perform better than the Bitcoin capital we sell for investment, we'll use those profits to buy more Bitcoin.
David:
We've previously spoken with some extreme Bitcoin supporters who believe the way to surpass Bitcoin is to buy more Bitcoin. What do you think?
Arthur Hayes:
I don't entirely agree with this view, as it depends on the time frame. For example, a token that goes from $7 to $300. If you invest at $7 and sell at $300, then in that time frame, your returns are obviously better than Bitcoin's performance.
David:
One last question, what are Maelstrom's next plans? Are there any new expansions or projects?
Arthur Hayes:
We are launching an acquisition business. Specifically, we plan to raise investor funds to acquire certain crypto companies. The management structure of these companies might be reorganized, while we focus on adding new revenue streams. In the future, we also plan to go public in the US through a SPAC. We've currently locked onto a target enterprise and are preparing to raise funds, hoping to significantly improve the company's profitability through this plan.
David:
What types of enterprises and operations are you interested in?
Arthur Hayes:
We mainly focus on enterprises with very stable cash flow and strong profitability. The company we're currently looking at has good profit conditions and healthy cash flow, and we plan to complete the acquisition at a reasonable price.
