No Cut, No Bitcoin Breakout: FOMC and SLR Speculation Dominate Crypto Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuates below the 107,000 USD threshold, and excess supply limits further price increases.

Meanwhile, traders' attention is focused on the interest rate decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the meeting on 17/06 and 18/06.

Bitcoin stalls below 107,000 USD as Fed decision approaches

The FOMC interest rate decision tomorrow is crucial after the CPI (Consumer Price Index) report last week. BeInCrypto has reported that inflation increased in May for the first time since February.

Data on the CME FedWatch Tool shows the market is almost certain there will be no interest rate cut.

In this context, speculation has shifted to more nuanced liquidation sources, particularly changes to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), as a potential trigger for the next cryptocurrency price surge.

"Bitcoin has tried to break the high of the range but failed to push prices higher. This ~108K USD resistance area remains an important zone to watch, and without a clear break, it's not time to be excited. Still within this larger range," analyst Daan Crypto Trades said.

While the Fed is widely expected to maintain interest rates, with Polymarket odds showing 98% chance of no change in June and 84% in July, some cryptocurrency analysts are focusing more on what remains unsaid.

"No interest rate cut this week. People are watching for rate cuts. But liquidation really comes from SLR," analyst Quinten wrote.

SLR, or Supplementary Leverage Ratio, is a capital requirement regulation that limits banks' exposure to certain assets, particularly Government Bonds.

SLR, not interest rate cuts, may trigger the next cryptocurrency liquidation wave

Relaxing this regulation essentially allows banks to absorb more debt, increasing market liquidation without directly using quantitative easing (QE).

Meanwhile, investor sentiment around interest rate policy remains deeply divided, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell still resisting political pressure from President Trump.

"The US will be too late in cutting rates again. But once they start cutting rates... Cryptocurrency will explode," analyst Mister Crypto said.

Recent comments by Chamath Palihapitiya on The All-In Podcast further fueled speculation. The Canadian-American venture investor suggested the Fed's hesitation is ultimately political.

"If there's a mathematical reason to lower rates and it has all these other positive impacts for the US economy, why not do it? The only answer is politics," he said.

According to the VC, the All-In Podcast points out that a 100 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut, which Trump supports, would reduce national debt interest by 300 billion USD and stimulate economic growth through increased borrowing and GDP expansion, despite potential inflation risks.

However, while the Fed's decision may be predictable, the actual action might occur during Jerome Powell's press conference. Even small tone changes could shift the market.

"There's something else that will be more important than the rate cut decision. Powell's press conference... If Iran-Israel conflict negotiations happen before FOMC, the Fed might hint at ending QE and potentially cutting rates. In this case, the market could rise, and altcoins might surge strongly. If not, it will just be a sell-off event," Cipher X wrote.

Elsewhere, analyst Marty Party speculated that the GENIUS Act, along with the FOMC interest rate decision, is another positive fundamental factor for Bitcoin price.

"Bitcoin Wyckoff Accumulation February/June 16 – entering Final Stage. In my view: GENIUS Act or FOMC will be used as a price increase narrative," Marty Party wrote.

Based on the Wyckoff market cycle, an asset's price transitions to an appreciation phase after an accumulation phase, with sustainable growth and increasing buying pressure.

This marks the potential start of an upward trend, where prices rise to new highs.

Bitcoin price forecast before FOMC interest rate decision

TradingView data shows Bitcoin trading at 106,700 USD at the time of writing, with a low demand zone between 101,461 USD and 105,923 USD.

Buying momentum is expected to emerge in this range, with volume profile price levels (green nodes) indicating investors are waiting to interact with BTC as it drops to this zone.

Increasing buying pressure could cause Bitcoin to retest the supply zone between 109,242 USD and 111,634 USD. A break and close above the medium-term 110,478 USD could pave the way for a new Bitcoin all-time high.

On the contrary, if selling pressure increases and Bitcoin price drops below the medium threshold of 103,529 USD, a closure below this support could further exacerbate losses. Similarly, price volume profiles (red bars or nodes) indicate sellers are waiting to interact with BTC price around this price area.

With both macro risks and technical pressure increasing, traders are monitoring not only the Fed's interest rate position.