Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Many people are still asking about whether there is a bull market or not. Regarding this question, we still stick to the previous statement: Have you ever seen a bear market with Bitcoin at $90,000? Or, if you believe that the current Bitcoin at $95,000 is already in the bear market category, then what price would you consider a bull market?
Regardless of whether it's a so-called bull or bear market, buying and selling Bitcoin will never disappear. The only difference in this market is: Some people pursue short-term gains, some pursue long-term gains, and some don't even understand what they are trading.
Since Bitcoin rebounded to around $94,700 (at the Fibonacci 0.236 position) around late last month (April 22), it has been consolidating for over 10 days. Looking at the Bitcoin balance in exchanges, Bitcoin has once again experienced a noticeable rapid inflow followed by continuous outflow, as shown in the image below.
Additionally, from the image, we can see that when Bitcoin dropped from its historical high of $109,000 on January 20 this year to around $99,000 on February 5, the Bitcoin balance in exchanges also experienced a significant inflow, after which Bitcoin's price consolidated for nearly 20 days.
However, the difference is that last time Bitcoin was in a downward trend at the daily line level, while this time it is in an upward trend at the daily line level. Meanwhile, there are many important meetings and data to be released in the US in May, including the FOMC meeting on May 7 (Eastern Time), SEC's crypto roundtable on May 12, CPI data on May 13, retail sales data on May 15, and so on. Therefore, in the next 1-2 weeks, we may continue to face short-term market volatility.
From a longer-term perspective, such as the weekly line, if no new black swan events occur, we might see Bitcoin breaking its historical high again in the second quarter of this year.
Of course, since the overall macroeconomic situation hasn't fundamentally changed, we shouldn't be too optimistic. Don't start shouting about $150,000, $200,000, or even $1 million just because Bitcoin might rise, just like how many people were shouting about $50,000 or $40,000 when Bitcoin dropped a couple of months ago.
Theoretically, even if Bitcoin has a chance to break new highs in the second quarter of this year (May and June), it may not rise too much. We believe it will likely continue to maintain a new high range and enter a phase of periodic oscillation, unless there are significant new positive policy factors or macroeconomic data (mainly from the US) to stimulate it.
We mentioned the changes in Bitcoin exchange balances earlier. Since the overall exchange balance is continuously decreasing, it means that some individuals/institutions are continuously accumulating Bitcoin, such as withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges to cold wallets or other purposes. From current on-chain statistical data, it seems that a large portion of Bitcoin has flowed into institutional custody accounts, as shown in the image below.
When talking about institutions, people probably first think of BlackRock and MicroStrategy. Taking MicroStrategy as an example, according to their latest published data, as of April 28, 2025, MicroStrategy holds 553,555 Bitcoins with an average dollar-cost average purchase price of $68,478, as shown in the image below.
MicroStrategy bought 25,370 Bitcoins in April, 29,089 in March, 27,989 in February, and 24,707 in January...
Currently, Bitcoin miners produce about 13,500 Bitcoins per month, which means the current Bitcoin production seems unable to meet the accumulation needs of this single institution. Looking at this data from another angle, does it also mean that continuous institutional Bitcoin accumulation will further compress Bitcoin's supply curve, creating an "artificial" halving situation and making Bitcoin more "scarce"?
Perhaps one day in the future, Bitcoin's price will no longer be restricted by the existing four-year halving cycle or even the crypto market, but instead be priced by a superpower (currently looking like the US). But even if Bitcoin reaches $1 million, it probably won't have much benefit for most retail investors (though it won't stop most retail investors from chasing and selling), because by then, ordinary retail investors will likely have very few Bitcoins left.
Of course, these are just theoretical possibilities of what might happen in the future. No one can predict the future, including many people who still believe Bitcoin will eventually go to zero. This is a matter of individual perspective.
The only advice we can give is that as Bitcoin is continuously adopted from the bottom up (from retail investors to institutions, and then to nations), Bitcoin seems to have gradually transformed from being driven by halving, retail investors, and market forces to being driven by accelerated capital. We need to accept and adapt to this changing game rule, try to ignore short-term prices, and extend our time horizon. Under the premise of not affecting your daily life quality, try to accumulate more Bitcoin, even if it's just 1 Bitcoin, which might become one of your most important personal assets in the future.
Above, we mainly discussed Bitcoin. Let's briefly chat about Altcoins at the end of the article.
Now, Altcoins seem to be completely breaking historical patterns, for example:
- New coins listed on Binance are falling, while coins announced for delisting are breaking historical highs. For instance, ALPACA surged nearly 12 times in three days after being announced for delisting. In this market, the boundaries between positive and negative news are becoming increasingly blurred, and some original judgment logic no longer seems applicable to the current market, replaced by manipulation of human nature and various blatant manipulations.
- Binance Alpha points seem to have opened a new era of Altcoin farming. Now it seems everyone is trying to earn points, and Binance is continuously supporting (encouraging users to farm) through various activities. Previously, people would ask: Which 10x or 100x coin should I invest in now? Now they ask: How many points do you have? Did you get this round of rewards?
- Stablecoins are continuously being issued, currently reaching a historical high of $241.9 billion, but Altcoin market value growth is not ideal. For example, during the 2020-2021 bull market, for every $1 increase in stablecoins, the total Altcoin market value would rise by $8.3. However, in the current 2024-2025 bull market so far, for every $1 increase in stablecoins, the Altcoin market value only rises by $1.5.
- Celebrity tokens have entered a new round of "krypton gold" gameplay (for example, front-row Trump token players can have dinner with the US President), and Japanese voluptuous female stars have also joined the token issuance game (wondering if there will be a fan meetup later)...
In any case, many things seem to be changing differently from before, but one pattern currently still appears unchanged: when Bitcoin enters a high-level oscillation, Altcoins will still present some new opportunities. For instance, after Bitcoin achieved a staged price rebound breakthrough, many Altcoins under the AI concept experienced a general price increase.
To summarize, the difference between the current "Altcoin season" and previous cycles is: previously, almost all Altcoins had a chance to perform, while now only a small portion of Altcoins have a performance opportunity. We have discussed this point in our previous series of articles on Altcoins, and interested friends can continue to search and review historical articles.
Since the beginning of this cycle, for most retail investors, facing an increasing number of projects, Altcoins, and knowledge to learn, the opportunities to make money have become fewer (or increasingly difficult)... This might be the current widespread realistic problem.
However, fewer opportunities do not mean no opportunities, and the chances in the crypto field are actually more than in other fields. It's just that many people always try to pursue others' "fruits" while ignoring their "roots", and this cause-and-effect inversion often leads to failure or losses.
Actually, investment is not afraid of failure or loss, but of failing without self-awareness and getting deeper into trouble. Strong individuals never complain about the environment because they are the ones who mess it up. As weak individuals, we just need to maintain a strategy suitable for ourselves (the best strategy is often the simplest), consistently record and reflect on our successes and failures (especially failures), achieve unity of thought and action, and be satisfied with drinking soup when the strong are feasting.
As the old saying goes, try to maintain focus according to your own risk appetite, and there's no need to participate in or grasp every project's money-making opportunities or all methods of making money. In this field, there's basically no simple, safe way to make big money quickly. We just need to persist and excel in 1-2 things (niche areas) we have chosen or are best at, leading most other retail investors.
