Odaily星球日报讯 由于刚刚公布的小非农大幅不及预期，经济学家和投资者的担忧加剧。市场目光都聚焦在即将公布的政府非农就业报告上。如果该报告也显示就业增长放缓，可能会证实市场对美国经济放缓的担忧，从而影响美联储的货币政策决策。近期，由于担心特朗普的关税措施有可能使本已疲软的美国经济雪上加霜，交易员们纷纷押注美联储最快将于 5 月份恢复降息。周五的非农可能成为验证这一押注的重要信息。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 由于刚刚公布的小非农大幅不及预期，经济学家和投资者的担忧加剧。市场目光都聚焦在即将公布的政府非农就业报告上。如果该报告也显示就业增长放缓，可能会证实市场对美国经济放缓的担忧，从而影响美联储的货币政策决策。近期，由于担心特朗普的关税措施有可能使本已疲软的美国经济雪上加霜，交易员们纷纷押注美联储最快将于 5 月份恢复降息。周五的非农可能成为验证这一押注的重要信息。（金十）

周五美国非农报告将是验证押注美联储5月恢复降息的重要信息

Odaily reports that due to the just-announced disappointing <non-farm payroll>, the concerns of economists and investors have intensified. The market's attention is all focused on the upcoming government <non-farm employment report>. If the report also shows a slowdown in employment growth, it may confirm the market's concerns about the slowdown in the US economy, which could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. Recently, due to concerns that <Trump's tariff measures> could further weaken the already soft US economy, traders have been betting that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts as early as May. The non-farm payroll on Friday may become an important information to verify this bet.

Odaily Odaily report: Due to the just-announced disappointing <small non-farm payrolls>, the concerns of economists and investors have intensified. The market's attention is all focused on the upcoming government <non-farm employment report>. If the report also shows a slowdown in employment growth, it may confirm the market's concerns about the slowdown in the US economy, thereby affecting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. Recently, due to concerns that <Trump's tariff measures> may further weaken the already soft US economy, traders have been betting that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts as early as May. The non-farm payrolls on Friday may become an important information to verify this bet. (Gold Ten)

Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report will be important information to verify bets that the Fed will resume rate cuts in May

Odaily Odaily reported that after the release of the US "Small Non-Farm" ADP employment data, according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 93% (89% yesterday), and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 7%. There are currently about 14 days left until the next FOMC meeting.

After the release of the US "small non-farm" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 93%.

Odaily Odaily News reports that traders are increasing their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, with the market now fully pricing in three rate cuts by 2025. (<金十>)

Markets now fully price in three Fed rate cuts by 2025

Odaily Odaily News reports that Deutsche Bank's economic team holds the most hawkish Wall Street view on the Federal Reserve's policy in 2025, predicting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. Although this remains the official position of the team, chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti acknowledged that the impact of President Trump's new tariffs could jeopardize this forecast. "You're certainly starting to see some negative impacts of trade uncertainty in the economic data," Luzzetti said, "and if that broadens and manifests in weak labor market data, the Fed may cut rates this year." However, Luzzetti said that before changing its forecast for the Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank wants to see how long the tariffs will last. (Jin Shi)